Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Kyle Filipowski Under 0.5 threes
🎯 Core Value Bet
+144↑13%|-22
player threes
Kyle Filipowski Under 0.5 threes
🎯 Core Value Bet
+144↑13%|-22
player threes
41.10
Composite Score
+8.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
42.10
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup between the Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets, Kyle Filipowski is unlikely to exceed 0.5 made three-pointers given his poor shooting percentage of 19.0% over the last five games, combined with the Rockets' strong perimeter defense. Additionally, the expected game script with the Rockets favored by 13.5 points suggests he may see reduced playing time, further limiting his opportunities to score from beyond the arc. The Net EV of 0.08 indicates a slight edge, supporting the notion that the market may have underpriced this bet.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has posted a 3P percentage of just 19.0% over the last 5 games, which indicates a significant struggle from long-range shooting, making it unlikely he will exceed 0.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets, who have a strong defense, may limit perimeter shots, particularly against a player like Filipowski who hasn't excelled in this area.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Houston Rockets currently favored by 13.5 points, the game script may lean towards a blowout, leading to reduced playing time for Filipowski and limiting his opportunities to take threes.
- →TREND: Filipowski has averaged only 0.8 made three-pointers per game in the last five games, suggesting he is not consistently finding success from beyond the arc.
- →SITUATIONAL: Filipowski's minutes average at 21.1 per game suggests he doesn't have a heavy usage role, especially when games are out of reach, which may result in him not exceeding 0.5 threes during this matchup.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has averaged 0.8 three-pointers made per game over his last five contests, significantly exceeding the threshold of 0.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: Filipowski's role as a forward will allow him to exploit mismatches against the Utah Jazz's defense, who struggle to defend the perimeter efficiently, leading to more open shots.
- →NARRATIVE: The high game total of 228.5 indicates an expected high-scoring affair, which generally creates more opportunities for shooters to knock down threes.
- →TREND: Despite a dip in three-point shooting percentage to 19.0% over the last five games, Filipowski has still managed to convert threes, indicating he's going to take those shots regardless of efficiency.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are heavily favored with a spread of -13.5, suggesting they will likely be ahead in the game, which often leads to the trailing team's players like Filipowski taking more shots as they attempt to catch up.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: data not available, data not available
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has posted a 3P percentage of just 19.0% over the last 5 games, which indicates a significant struggle from long-range shooting, making it unlikely he will exceed 0.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets, who have a strong defense, may limit perimeter shots, particularly against a player like Filipowski who hasn't excelled in this area.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Houston Rockets currently favored by 13.5 points, the game script may lean towards a blowout, leading to reduced playing time for Filipowski and limiting his opportunities to take threes.
- →TREND: Filipowski has averaged only 0.8 made three-pointers per game in the last five games, suggesting he is not consistently finding success from beyond the arc.
- →SITUATIONAL: Filipowski's minutes average at 21.1 per game suggests he doesn't have a heavy usage role, especially when games are out of reach, which may result in him not exceeding 0.5 threes during this matchup.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available