Lauri Markkanen Over 1.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

-144↓5%|+8

player threes

Lauri Markkanen Over 1.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

-144↓5%|+8

player threes

60.00

Composite Score

+22.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In a high-paced game expected between the Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets, Lauri Markkanen has shown the ability to hit over 1.5 threes, averaging 2.0 in his last five games. The Rockets struggle defensively against the perimeter, allowing a high volume of three-point attempts, which aligns well with Markkanen's recent scoring surge. The positive Net EV of 0.23 highlights that the market may be underestimating his chances to exceed this threshold, particularly given the anticipated tempo of the game.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Lauri Markkanen has averaged 2.0 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, indicating that he consistently exceeds the 1.5 threes mark.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently allowing a high volume of three-point attempts per game, which plays in favor of Markkanen's ability to hit over 1.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: With the large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, the expectation is for a high-paced game, creating opportunities for more three-points as both teams push the tempo.
→TREND: Markkanen's recent performance shows an increase in scoring, averaging 26.8 points per game, suggesting he's finding his scoring rhythm, including from beyond the arc.
→SITUATIONAL: The Jazz's overall performance indicates they may rely heavily on their key players like Markkanen to make up for their struggles this season; he's likely to see significant minutes as they attempt to keep pace with Houston's scoring.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data not available, data not available

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 0%

Evidence

→STATS: Lauri Markkanen has been shooting only 28.4% from three-point range in his last five games, indicating a sharp decline in his ability to hit threes.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a strong perimeter defense that can limit three-point shooting, which poses a challenge for Markkanen to exceed 1.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large 13.5 point spread in this matchup, the game script may lead to a situation where Markkanen's minutes are reduced if the Jazz fall behind, negatively impacting his chances of exceeding 1.5 threes.
→TREND: Markkanen has been averaging only 2.0 three-pointers made per game over his last five games, but combined with his recent shooting struggles, this average suggests a downturn is more probable.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Jazz sitting at a 18-39 record and currently on a two-game losing streak, they may start to experiment with different rotations, potentially limiting Markkanen's opportunities for shooting three-pointers.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Lauri Markkanen has averaged 2.0 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, indicating that he consistently exceeds the 1.5 threes mark.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently allowing a high volume of three-point attempts per game, which plays in favor of Markkanen's ability to hit over 1.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: With the large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, the expectation is for a high-paced game, creating opportunities for more three-points as both teams push the tempo.
→TREND: Markkanen's recent performance shows an increase in scoring, averaging 26.8 points per game, suggesting he's finding his scoring rhythm, including from beyond the arc.
→SITUATIONAL: The Jazz's overall performance indicates they may rely heavily on their key players like Markkanen to make up for their struggles this season; he's likely to see significant minutes as they attempt to keep pace with Houston's scoring.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data not available, data not available