Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Jabari Smith Jr Over 2.5 threes
🎯 Core Value Bet
+119↓213%|+224
player threes
Jabari Smith Jr Over 2.5 threes
🎯 Core Value Bet
+119↓213%|+224
player threes
63.60
Composite Score
+12.8%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
63.80
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This bet on Jabari Smith Jr. to make over 2.5 three-pointers is promising given the anticipated high-scoring and fast-paced nature of the game, with a total set at 228.5 points. The Houston Rockets are heavily favored, suggesting they'll score efficiently, providing Smith with ample opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc. The Net EV of 0.13 validates the belief that this bet is underpriced by the market.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged 2.8 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, exceeding the 2.5 threshold consistently.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored heavily in this matchup against the Jazz, indicated by the -13.5 spread, which suggests they will be scoring efficiently, allowing Smith more opportunities to shoot.
- →NARRATIVE: The game's high total of 228.5 points indicates a fast-paced, high-scoring environment where players are likely to attempt and make more three-pointers.
- →TREND: In the last 5 games, Smith has increased his points per game to 18.0, showing an uptick in offensive involvement, supportive of hitting the over on three-pointers.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are currently positioned well in the playoff race (#4 seed), creating a sense of urgency to perform well in home games, likely leading to more aggressive offensive schemes that benefit Smith.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged 2.8 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, but his performance varies; he made 3 or more threes in only 3 of those games, indicating inconsistency in hitting the over.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are known for having a strong perimeter defense, which may limit Smith's opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc, as they rank highly in opponent three-point percentage this season.
- →NARRATIVE: With a significant spread of -13.5 indicating a likely blowout, if the Rockets are leading comfortably, Jabari Smith Jr. may see reduced minutes in garbage time, impacting his ability to reach 3+ three-pointers.
- →TREND: In his last encounter with the Jazz, he managed only 1 three-pointer, suggesting a lack of success against this specific matchup that can carry over to future games.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game context features a high total of 228.5, which might suggest a faster pace; however, if the Rockets jump to an early lead, they might prioritize ball control rather than shooting, hindering Smith’s opportunities to shoot threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged 2.8 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, exceeding the 2.5 threshold consistently.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored heavily in this matchup against the Jazz, indicated by the -13.5 spread, which suggests they will be scoring efficiently, allowing Smith more opportunities to shoot.
- →NARRATIVE: The game's high total of 228.5 points indicates a fast-paced, high-scoring environment where players are likely to attempt and make more three-pointers.
- →TREND: In the last 5 games, Smith has increased his points per game to 18.0, showing an uptick in offensive involvement, supportive of hitting the over on three-pointers.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are currently positioned well in the playoff race (#4 seed), creating a sense of urgency to perform well in home games, likely leading to more aggressive offensive schemes that benefit Smith.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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