Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Jabari Smith Jr Over 2.5 threes
🎯 Core Value Bet
+110↓2%|+2
player threes
Jabari Smith Jr Over 2.5 threes
🎯 Core Value Bet
+110↓2%|+2
player threes
60.80
Composite Score
+11.3%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
56.40
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the high total of 228.5 points and the favorable matchup against the Utah Jazz, it is likely that the game will be fast-paced, providing Jabari Smith Jr. with ample opportunities to knock down three-pointers. His recent performance indicates an increased offensive role, and the Rockets' strong home performance adds to the likelihood of him exceeding the 2.5 three-pointers made. The Net EV of 0.11 indicates that the market may not fully reflect these conditions, making this a solid bet.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged 2.8 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, exceeding the 2.5 threshold consistently.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored heavily in this matchup against the Jazz, indicated by the -13.5 spread, which suggests they will be scoring efficiently, allowing Smith more opportunities to shoot.
- →NARRATIVE: The game's high total of 228.5 points indicates a fast-paced, high-scoring environment where players are likely to attempt and make more three-pointers.
- →TREND: In the last 5 games, Smith has increased his points per game to 18.0, showing an uptick in offensive involvement, supportive of hitting the over on three-pointers.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are currently positioned well in the playoff race (#4 seed), creating a sense of urgency to perform well in home games, likely leading to more aggressive offensive schemes that benefit Smith.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged 2.8 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, but his performance varies; he made 3 or more threes in only 3 of those games, indicating inconsistency in hitting the over.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are known for having a strong perimeter defense, which may limit Smith's opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc, as they rank highly in opponent three-point percentage this season.
- →NARRATIVE: With a significant spread of -13.5 indicating a likely blowout, if the Rockets are leading comfortably, Jabari Smith Jr. may see reduced minutes in garbage time, impacting his ability to reach 3+ three-pointers.
- →TREND: In his last encounter with the Jazz, he managed only 1 three-pointer, suggesting a lack of success against this specific matchup that can carry over to future games.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game context features a high total of 228.5, which might suggest a faster pace; however, if the Rockets jump to an early lead, they might prioritize ball control rather than shooting, hindering Smith’s opportunities to shoot threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged 2.8 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, exceeding the 2.5 threshold consistently.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored heavily in this matchup against the Jazz, indicated by the -13.5 spread, which suggests they will be scoring efficiently, allowing Smith more opportunities to shoot.
- →NARRATIVE: The game's high total of 228.5 points indicates a fast-paced, high-scoring environment where players are likely to attempt and make more three-pointers.
- →TREND: In the last 5 games, Smith has increased his points per game to 18.0, showing an uptick in offensive involvement, supportive of hitting the over on three-pointers.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are currently positioned well in the playoff race (#4 seed), creating a sense of urgency to perform well in home games, likely leading to more aggressive offensive schemes that benefit Smith.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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