Lauri Markkanen Over 1.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

-135— stable

player threes

Lauri Markkanen Over 1.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

-135— stable

player threes

60.60

Composite Score

+24.2%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, I expect a high-paced game given the spread of Houston -13.5, which indicates the Jazz will need to apply offensive pressure to stay competitive. Lauri Markkanen's recent average of 2.0 three-pointers made aligns with the expected game narrative, and the Rockets' susceptibility to three-point shooting creates a favorable environment for him to exceed his mark of 1.5 threes. The Net EV of 0.24 suggests this bet is underpriced by the bookmaker, making it a solid wagering opportunity.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Lauri Markkanen has averaged 2.0 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, indicating that he consistently exceeds the 1.5 threes mark.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently allowing a high volume of three-point attempts per game, which plays in favor of Markkanen's ability to hit over 1.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: With the large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, the expectation is for a high-paced game, creating opportunities for more three-points as both teams push the tempo.
→TREND: Markkanen's recent performance shows an increase in scoring, averaging 26.8 points per game, suggesting he's finding his scoring rhythm, including from beyond the arc.
→SITUATIONAL: The Jazz's overall performance indicates they may rely heavily on their key players like Markkanen to make up for their struggles this season; he's likely to see significant minutes as they attempt to keep pace with Houston's scoring.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data not available, data not available

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 0%

Evidence

→STATS: Lauri Markkanen has been shooting only 28.4% from three-point range in his last five games, indicating a sharp decline in his ability to hit threes.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a strong perimeter defense that can limit three-point shooting, which poses a challenge for Markkanen to exceed 1.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large 13.5 point spread in this matchup, the game script may lead to a situation where Markkanen's minutes are reduced if the Jazz fall behind, negatively impacting his chances of exceeding 1.5 threes.
→TREND: Markkanen has been averaging only 2.0 three-pointers made per game over his last five games, but combined with his recent shooting struggles, this average suggests a downturn is more probable.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Jazz sitting at a 18-39 record and currently on a two-game losing streak, they may start to experiment with different rotations, potentially limiting Markkanen's opportunities for shooting three-pointers.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Lauri Markkanen has averaged 2.0 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, indicating that he consistently exceeds the 1.5 threes mark.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently allowing a high volume of three-point attempts per game, which plays in favor of Markkanen's ability to hit over 1.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: With the large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, the expectation is for a high-paced game, creating opportunities for more three-points as both teams push the tempo.
→TREND: Markkanen's recent performance shows an increase in scoring, averaging 26.8 points per game, suggesting he's finding his scoring rhythm, including from beyond the arc.
→SITUATIONAL: The Jazz's overall performance indicates they may rely heavily on their key players like Markkanen to make up for their struggles this season; he's likely to see significant minutes as they attempt to keep pace with Houston's scoring.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data not available, data not available