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Kyle Filipowski Under 22.5 points rebounds assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
+100— stable
player points rebounds assists
Kyle Filipowski Under 22.5 points rebounds assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
+100— stable
player points rebounds assists
36.50
Composite Score
+6.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
30.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, Kyle Filipowski is expected to struggle against the strong defensive team of the Houston Rockets, which supports the Under bet on his points, rebounds, and assists combined. Filipowski's recent averages suggest he would need a notable improvement to exceed the line of 22.5, and with a potential blowout looming due to the 13.5 point spread favoring Houston, his minutes could be limited, reducing his chances to accumulate stats effectively. The Net EV of 0.06 reflects a slight underpricing by the market, making this a reasonable lean toward the Under.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has a season average of just 9.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.9 assists, which amounts to only 17.6 combined. This is well below the 22.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: Filipowski faces a Houston Rockets team with a strong defensive rating, which makes scoring and accumulating stats more challenging for opposing players, particularly forwards.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 13.5 favoring Houston, it's likely that the game will become a blowout, meaning Filipowski may not get significant minutes in the second half, limiting his ability to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Filipowski is averaging only 12.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 1.4 assists. Even at his recent best, he would need a significant improvement to exceed 22.5 combined.
- →SITUATIONAL: With no injuries reported for the Utah Jazz and a relatively healthy roster, there is no indication of an increased role for Filipowski. His average playing time of 21.1 minutes suggests limited opportunity for exceeding the stat threshold.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has averaged 12.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in his last 5 games, which totals to 22.0—close to the threshold of 22.5 points, rebounds, and assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are allowing a higher pace of play and have been susceptible to players scoring in the paint, which should benefit Filipowski's scoring and rebounding stats.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 228.5, it suggests a high-scoring affair, and in such games, Filipowski is likely to see an increase in offensive opportunities and overall production.
- →TREND: In recent matchups against the Jazz, Filipowski has performed well, notably with a game where he recorded 13 rebounds and scored additionally, showing he can exceed the threshold against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are favored heavily with a spread of -13.5, likely indicating that Filipowski will play more minutes to keep pace in a potentially high-scoring game against a struggling Jazz team.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has a season average of just 9.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.9 assists, which amounts to only 17.6 combined. This is well below the 22.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: Filipowski faces a Houston Rockets team with a strong defensive rating, which makes scoring and accumulating stats more challenging for opposing players, particularly forwards.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 13.5 favoring Houston, it's likely that the game will become a blowout, meaning Filipowski may not get significant minutes in the second half, limiting his ability to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Filipowski is averaging only 12.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 1.4 assists. Even at his recent best, he would need a significant improvement to exceed 22.5 combined.
- →SITUATIONAL: With no injuries reported for the Utah Jazz and a relatively healthy roster, there is no indication of an increased role for Filipowski. His average playing time of 21.1 minutes suggests limited opportunity for exceeding the stat threshold.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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