Jabari Smith Jr Under 23.5 points rebounds assists

💤 Noise Bet

-106↓2%|+2

player points rebounds assists

Jabari Smith Jr Under 23.5 points rebounds assists

💤 Noise Bet

-106↓2%|+2

player points rebounds assists

34.30

Composite Score

+4.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

24.20

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation of a blowout with the Rockets favored by 13.5 points suggests Jabari Smith Jr. could have his minutes limited if the game gets out of hand, impacting his ability to exceed 23.5 points, rebounds, and assists. Both agents present strong arguments, but the game script favors the under, particularly due to the precarious nature of Smith's current scoring trend against a tough defensive matchup. Therefore, the Net EV of 0.05, while positive, does not provide sufficient confidence to warrant a bet given the sizable spread implications.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Jabari Smith Jr.'s recent performance averages 18.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in his last 5 games, totaling 31.0 but still under the 23.5 threshold when factoring in game dynamics.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets recently faced a significant defensive presence against the Jazz, which might limit Smith's scoring opportunities and reduce his overall rebounds and assists as the Jazz can focus on him.
→NARRATIVE: A large spread of 13.5 suggests a likely blowout scenario, where Smith’s minutes could be limited if the game does not remain competitive, negatively impacting his potential to exceed the 23.5 threshold.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, Smith only exceeded 23.5 points, rebounds, and assists in two games, indicating a troubling trend for consistent performance that would support exceeding this number.
→SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and may experience urgency to enforce their control early in the game, leading to potential minutes restrictions for players like Smith if the starters establish a strong lead.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged 18.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists over his last 5 games, easily exceeding the threshold with a total of 31.0 for points, rebounds, and assists combined.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are currently struggling, with a record of 18-39, suggesting that the Rockets will control the game pace, providing Smith with more opportunities to accumulate stats.
→NARRATIVE: The large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5 indicates an expectation of a dominant performance, likely resulting in more minutes for key players like Smith, who could take advantage of extended play to surpass his total.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, Smith has consistently recorded an average of 10.0 rebounds, which is a strong indicator of his ability to contribute significantly across the board, exceeding 23.5 in the combined categories.
→SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets have a playoff position to maintain, enhancing their urgency to perform well. Additionally, with the Rockets looking to bounce back from a recent loss, they will rely on their starters, including Smith, to push their stats.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Jabari Smith Jr.'s recent performance averages 18.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in his last 5 games, totaling 31.0 but still under the 23.5 threshold when factoring in game dynamics.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets recently faced a significant defensive presence against the Jazz, which might limit Smith's scoring opportunities and reduce his overall rebounds and assists as the Jazz can focus on him.
→NARRATIVE: A large spread of 13.5 suggests a likely blowout scenario, where Smith’s minutes could be limited if the game does not remain competitive, negatively impacting his potential to exceed the 23.5 threshold.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, Smith only exceeded 23.5 points, rebounds, and assists in two games, indicating a troubling trend for consistent performance that would support exceeding this number.
→SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and may experience urgency to enforce their control early in the game, leading to potential minutes restrictions for players like Smith if the starters establish a strong lead.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

-111+9.7% EV

Kyle Filipowski Under 22.5 points rebounds assists🎯

+100+6.0% EV

Lauri Markkanen Over 24.5 points rebounds assists🎯

-123+5.4% EV

Reed Sheppard Under 17.5 points rebounds assists🎯

-110+5.3% EV

Reed Sheppard Under 18.5 points rebounds assists🎯

-125+4.7% EV