Reed Sheppard Under 18.5 points rebounds assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-125↑2%|-3

player points rebounds assists

Reed Sheppard Under 18.5 points rebounds assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-125↑2%|-3

player points rebounds assists

34.00

Composite Score

+4.7%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

23.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the expected game script where the Houston Rockets are likely to dominate, the factors indicate that Reed Sheppard's opportunities to contribute will be limited. With the Jazz potentially struggling to keep up in a blowout scenario, Sheppard's playing time may decrease, further supporting the Under on 18.5 PRA. The Net EV of 0.05 suggests a slight edge in this wager, reinforcing the idea that the market has slightly mispriced the likelihood of Sheppard hitting the Under based on statistical performance and the game context.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Reed Sheppard's season average for points, rebounds, and assists combined is only 7.3 (4.4 points, 1.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists), significantly below the 18.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, indicating a potential blowout scenario; if the game is out of reach, Sheppard may see reduced minutes, limiting his overall stats.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread, the game script may favor the Rockets dominating early on, which often leads to starters resting in the second half and ultimately fewer opportunities for Sheppard to contribute across stats.
→TREND: Over his last five games, Sheppard is only averaging 15 points, 3 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, totaling just 21.8 — but most of those minutes came in competitive matchups. His recent performance indicates he's struggling to hit even 18.5 in a less favorable environment.
→SITUATIONAL: Considering Utah Jazz's overall record of 18-39, they may not have the intensity or momentum to compete effectively; if the game turns lopsided quickly, it would further limit Sheppard's opportunities, especially if they decide to give more time to their bench players.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: In his last five games, Reed Sheppard has averaged 15.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game, totaling 21.8 PRA, which is well over the 18.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets against whom Sheppard will be playing currently have one of the highest-paced offenses in the league, which typically results in more possessions and counting stats for players on both teams.
→NARRATIVE: The large spread of -13.5 suggests that the Houston Rockets are expected to dominate this game, which means Reed Sheppard will have more opportunities to score and contribute in all categories, as the Jazz will likely be playing catch-up.
→TREND: Sheppard has shown significant improved performance in his last games, as evidenced by his higher averages in assists (3.8) and rebounds (3.0), indicating he is becoming more involved in the offense.
→SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss, meaning they’ll be motivated to bounce back strong, likely leading to increased scoring and participation from perimeter players like Sheppard as they will focus on offensive pressure.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Reed Sheppard's season average for points, rebounds, and assists combined is only 7.3 (4.4 points, 1.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists), significantly below the 18.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, indicating a potential blowout scenario; if the game is out of reach, Sheppard may see reduced minutes, limiting his overall stats.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread, the game script may favor the Rockets dominating early on, which often leads to starters resting in the second half and ultimately fewer opportunities for Sheppard to contribute across stats.
→TREND: Over his last five games, Sheppard is only averaging 15 points, 3 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, totaling just 21.8 — but most of those minutes came in competitive matchups. His recent performance indicates he's struggling to hit even 18.5 in a less favorable environment.
→SITUATIONAL: Considering Utah Jazz's overall record of 18-39, they may not have the intensity or momentum to compete effectively; if the game turns lopsided quickly, it would further limit Sheppard's opportunities, especially if they decide to give more time to their bench players.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

-111+9.7% EV

Kyle Filipowski Under 22.5 points rebounds assists🎯

+100+6.0% EV

Lauri Markkanen Over 24.5 points rebounds assists🎯

-123+5.4% EV

Reed Sheppard Under 17.5 points rebounds assists🎯

-110+5.3% EV

Jabari Smith Jr Under 23.5 points rebounds assists💤

-106+4.8% EV