Brice Sensabaugh Under 17.5 points rebounds assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-111↓3%|+4

player points rebounds assists

Brice Sensabaugh Under 17.5 points rebounds assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-111↓3%|+4

player points rebounds assists

41.30

Composite Score

+9.7%

Net EV

65.00

Narrative Fit

28.30

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the expected outcome of a blowout in favor of the Houston Rockets, Brice Sensabaugh is likely to see limited minutes, which directly impacts his ability to exceed the 17.5 points, rebounds, and assists threshold. His recent average of just 10.4 combined stats over his last five games, coupled with the strong defensive performance from the Rockets, supports the Under. The Net EV of 0.10 reflects a slight edge on this wager, suggesting the market has undervalued Sensabaugh's performance constraints in this matchup.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Brice Sensabaugh's recent performance has seen him average only 6.6 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists over the last 5 games, totaling just 10.4 points, rebounds, and assists combined, significantly below the 17.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are facing a top-tier Houston Rockets team, which could limit Sensabaugh's ability to contribute significantly in points and assists, especially considering they are likely playing from behind in this matchup.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the spread for this game is Houston Rockets -13.5, it's expected to be a blowout. Sensabaugh may not get enough minutes in a likely garbage time scenario, reducing his chances of exceeding 17.5 combined stats.
→TREND: In his last five games, Sensabaugh has not exceeded 17 combined points, rebounds, and assists in any game, demonstrating a consistent underperformance relative to this threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Rockets' strong defensive capabilities and the pressure to win against a struggling Jazz team, Sensabaugh's opportunities to perform may be limited, and potential blowout conditions could lead to reduced minutes for him.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: In his last 5 games, Brice Sensabaugh has averaged 6.6 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, giving him a total of about 10.4 combined points, rebounds, and assists, indicating potential for growth.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have a weak defense, ranking low in points allowed per game, which allows opposing players like Sensabaugh to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 228.5 for the game, a fast-paced and high-scoring contest is expected, which generally leads to increased stats across the board for players.
→TREND: While his recent averages are below the threshold, Sensabaugh's shooting percentage (45.9%) suggests he has the potential to score more efficiently in favorable matchups, and he has previously demonstrated the ability to exceed these numbers when given more minutes.
→SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets, favored by 13.5 points, are likely to control the game tempo, leading to more possessions, which could provide Sensabaugh additional opportunities to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists.

Thesis: moderate

Market: agree

Sources: data not available, data not available

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Brice Sensabaugh's recent performance has seen him average only 6.6 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists over the last 5 games, totaling just 10.4 points, rebounds, and assists combined, significantly below the 17.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are facing a top-tier Houston Rockets team, which could limit Sensabaugh's ability to contribute significantly in points and assists, especially considering they are likely playing from behind in this matchup.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the spread for this game is Houston Rockets -13.5, it's expected to be a blowout. Sensabaugh may not get enough minutes in a likely garbage time scenario, reducing his chances of exceeding 17.5 combined stats.
→TREND: In his last five games, Sensabaugh has not exceeded 17 combined points, rebounds, and assists in any game, demonstrating a consistent underperformance relative to this threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Rockets' strong defensive capabilities and the pressure to win against a struggling Jazz team, Sensabaugh's opportunities to perform may be limited, and potential blowout conditions could lead to reduced minutes for him.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

+100+6.0% EV

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