Reed Sheppard Under 17.5 points rebounds assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-110— stable

player points rebounds assists

Reed Sheppard Under 17.5 points rebounds assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-110— stable

player points rebounds assists

35.10

Composite Score

+5.3%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

26.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In the matchup between the Utah Jazz and the Houston Rockets, the expectation is for a significant defensive struggle from the Jazz against a strong Rockets team. With Sheppard’s season averages combined only at 7.3 and the likelihood of reduced playing time due to the projected blowout (Rockets favored by 13.5), it’s reasonable to expect Sheppard will stay under the total of 17.5 points, rebounds, and assists. The Net EV of 0.05 reflects a minor edge indicating the market may not fully account for these factors, making this a solid wager.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Reed Sheppard's season averages of 4.4 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists total only 7.3 combined, far below the threshold of 17.5 points, rebounds, and assists.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are facing a strong Houston Rockets team that has a defensive rating ranking in the upper tier of the league, making it harder for Sheppard to contribute significantly in points and assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the spread of -13.5 in favor of the Rockets, a blowout scenario is likely, which often leads to starters being pulled early and reduced playing time for Sheppard, limiting his opportunity to accumulate stats.
→TREND: Reed Sheppard has only averaged 15.0 points in his last 5 games, and the majority of those games required substantial minutes, whereas the current context suggests he will have limited time on the court.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Jazz struggling at 18-39 and on a two-game losing streak, the team may not prioritize individual performances, especially if the game gets out of hand, working against Sheppard's chances of surpassing the combined statistical threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: In the last 5 games, Reed Sheppard has averaged 15.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game, which totals 21.8 when combined, exceeding the threshold of 17.5.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a fast pace of play, which can lead to more possessions and scoring opportunities, benefitting Sheppard in his contributions to points, rebounds, and assists.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 228.5, the expectation is for a high-scoring game, allowing Sheppard plenty of opportunities to accumulate stats across the board.
→TREND: Over the last few games, Sheppard's minutes have increased significantly, averaging 28.6 minutes. More minutes typically lead to higher production numbers, supporting the potential for exceeding the threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are favored by a large margin of 13.5 points, indicating they may be able to generate scoring opportunities through a brisk pace, and if the Jazz chase the game, it could lead to more playing time and usage for Sheppard.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Reed Sheppard's season averages of 4.4 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists total only 7.3 combined, far below the threshold of 17.5 points, rebounds, and assists.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are facing a strong Houston Rockets team that has a defensive rating ranking in the upper tier of the league, making it harder for Sheppard to contribute significantly in points and assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the spread of -13.5 in favor of the Rockets, a blowout scenario is likely, which often leads to starters being pulled early and reduced playing time for Sheppard, limiting his opportunity to accumulate stats.
→TREND: Reed Sheppard has only averaged 15.0 points in his last 5 games, and the majority of those games required substantial minutes, whereas the current context suggests he will have limited time on the court.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Jazz struggling at 18-39 and on a two-game losing streak, the team may not prioritize individual performances, especially if the game gets out of hand, working against Sheppard's chances of surpassing the combined statistical threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

-111+9.7% EV

Kyle Filipowski Under 22.5 points rebounds assists🎯

+100+6.0% EV

Lauri Markkanen Over 24.5 points rebounds assists🎯

-123+5.4% EV

Jabari Smith Jr Under 23.5 points rebounds assists💤

-106+4.8% EV

Reed Sheppard Under 18.5 points rebounds assists🎯

-125+4.7% EV