Brice Sensabaugh Under 1.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+130↓169%|+319

player threes

Brice Sensabaugh Under 1.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+130↓169%|+319

player threes

37.90

Composite Score

+6.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

33.80

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The betting decision leans towards passing on the Under for Brice Sensabaugh as his average of 1.4 threes per game suggests he is consistently a threat from deep. While the defensive matchup against the Rockets and potential for a blowout should limit his opportunities, the fight to reach those 1.5 threes is closer than the agents' assessments imply. The Net EV score of 0.07 reflects a marginal edge, but the balance of evidence suggests not enough strong alignment exists to warrant placing a bet.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Brice Sensabaugh's recent 3-point shooting percentage is only 30.0%, which significantly underwhelms the requirement to exceed 1.5 threes in this game.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a strong defensive setup that can effectively limit perimeter shooting, making it challenging for Sensabaugh to find open looks for threes.
→NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, this indicates a potential for a blowout, which could lead to garbage time and limited playing time for Sensabaugh to score his threes.
→TREND: Sensabaugh has been averaging only 1.4 three-pointers made per game over the last five games, suggesting he is unlikely to exceed 1.5 threes against a tougher opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: Sensabaugh's average minutes per game is 20.2, and if the game is a blowout, he is likely to see his minutes reduced, further decreasing his chances of hitting over 1.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Brice Sensabaugh is currently averaging 1.4 three-pointers made per game over his last five games, which is very close to the threshold of 1.5, indicating he is consistently a threat from deep.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a defensive rating of 113.5, providing Sensabaugh with ample opportunity to exploit mismatches and get open looks for three-pointers.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game context, the large spread of -13.5 indicates a strong likelihood of the Rockets taking an early lead, leading to more opportunistic shooting opportunities for Sensabaugh as they rely on perimeter scoring.
→TREND: Although Sensabaugh's three-point percentage has dipped to 30% in the last five games, his heavy usage in terms of attempts per game suggests he's actively looking to shoot, which aligns with the potential to exceed 1.5 threes.
→SITUATIONAL: The high game total of 228.5 indicates a fast-paced game where both teams will likely increase possession count, leading to more shot attempts for Sensabaugh, favoring him hitting the over on 1.5 three-pointers.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Brice Sensabaugh's recent 3-point shooting percentage is only 30.0%, which significantly underwhelms the requirement to exceed 1.5 threes in this game.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a strong defensive setup that can effectively limit perimeter shooting, making it challenging for Sensabaugh to find open looks for threes.
→NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, this indicates a potential for a blowout, which could lead to garbage time and limited playing time for Sensabaugh to score his threes.
→TREND: Sensabaugh has been averaging only 1.4 three-pointers made per game over the last five games, suggesting he is unlikely to exceed 1.5 threes against a tougher opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: Sensabaugh's average minutes per game is 20.2, and if the game is a blowout, he is likely to see his minutes reduced, further decreasing his chances of hitting over 1.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2