Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Kyle Filipowski Under 0.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+150— stable
player threes
Kyle Filipowski Under 0.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+150— stable
player threes
42.70
Composite Score
+9.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
46.20
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the strong support from both agents regarding Kyle Filipowski's struggles from long-range shooting and the matchup implications against the Houston Rockets, this wager suggests a favorable narrative for the Under 0.5 threes made. Filipowski's poor shooting percentage and limited usage in a likely blowout scenario indicate that the chances of him exceeding 0.5 made threes are low. The Net EV of 0.09, while slightly positive, does not provide enough confidence to make this a strong bet as both sides present valid points without a compelling edge leaning decisively in one direction.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has posted a 3P percentage of just 19.0% over the last 5 games, which indicates a significant struggle from long-range shooting, making it unlikely he will exceed 0.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets, who have a strong defense, may limit perimeter shots, particularly against a player like Filipowski who hasn't excelled in this area.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Houston Rockets currently favored by 13.5 points, the game script may lean towards a blowout, leading to reduced playing time for Filipowski and limiting his opportunities to take threes.
- →TREND: Filipowski has averaged only 0.8 made three-pointers per game in the last five games, suggesting he is not consistently finding success from beyond the arc.
- →SITUATIONAL: Filipowski's minutes average at 21.1 per game suggests he doesn't have a heavy usage role, especially when games are out of reach, which may result in him not exceeding 0.5 threes during this matchup.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has averaged 0.8 three-pointers made per game over his last five contests, significantly exceeding the threshold of 0.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: Filipowski's role as a forward will allow him to exploit mismatches against the Utah Jazz's defense, who struggle to defend the perimeter efficiently, leading to more open shots.
- →NARRATIVE: The high game total of 228.5 indicates an expected high-scoring affair, which generally creates more opportunities for shooters to knock down threes.
- →TREND: Despite a dip in three-point shooting percentage to 19.0% over the last five games, Filipowski has still managed to convert threes, indicating he's going to take those shots regardless of efficiency.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are heavily favored with a spread of -13.5, suggesting they will likely be ahead in the game, which often leads to the trailing team's players like Filipowski taking more shots as they attempt to catch up.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: data not available, data not available
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has posted a 3P percentage of just 19.0% over the last 5 games, which indicates a significant struggle from long-range shooting, making it unlikely he will exceed 0.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets, who have a strong defense, may limit perimeter shots, particularly against a player like Filipowski who hasn't excelled in this area.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Houston Rockets currently favored by 13.5 points, the game script may lean towards a blowout, leading to reduced playing time for Filipowski and limiting his opportunities to take threes.
- →TREND: Filipowski has averaged only 0.8 made three-pointers per game in the last five games, suggesting he is not consistently finding success from beyond the arc.
- →SITUATIONAL: Filipowski's minutes average at 21.1 per game suggests he doesn't have a heavy usage role, especially when games are out of reach, which may result in him not exceeding 0.5 threes during this matchup.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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