Kevin Durant Under 36.5 points rebounds assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-125— stable

player points rebounds assists

Kevin Durant Under 36.5 points rebounds assists

🎯 Core Value Bet

-125— stable

player points rebounds assists

27.00

Composite Score

+1.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

5.20

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the game script, it's likely that the Houston Rockets establish a significant lead against the Utah Jazz, leading to reduced minutes for Kevin Durant in the second half. Additionally, his recent performance has shown a downward trend in cumulative stats, averaging under the line of 36.5 for points, rebounds, and assists in several recent games. The Net EV of 0.01 implies a slight underpricing by the bookmakers, and considering both the matchup dynamics and Durant's current form, this makes the Under a sensible lean.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Kevin Durant's recent averages show he has only surpassed 36.5 points, rebounds, and assists cumulatively in 2 out of his last 5 games, indicating a troubling trend toward lower production.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz rank as a poor defensive team, but the spread's size (Houston Rockets -13.5) suggests that this game could become a blowout, leading to Durant possibly being rested in the second half and limiting his overall stats.
→NARRATIVE: With the game having a high total of 228.5 and the Rockets heavily favored, the game script may favor an easier win for Houston, potentially resulting in fewer minutes and decreased usage for Durant if they establish a significant lead early.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, Durant's shooting has been strong, yet he has only averaged 6.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists, suggesting he may struggle to reach the necessary contributions in these categories to exceed 36.5 overall.
→SITUATIONAL: The game comes after a recent loss for the Rockets, and given they are 34-21 and seeking playoff positioning, it is likely they will focus on efficiency over individual performances, potentially leading to Durant having reduced minutes and production in this high-stakes matchup.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Kevin Durant is averaging 26.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists in his last 5 games, totaling 38.0 in points, rebounds, and assists combined, which exceeds the 36.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a high-paced offense, which complements Durant's scoring ability, leading to more possessions and opportunities for higher accumulation of points, rebounds, and assists.
→NARRATIVE: The game has a large spread (Rockets -13.5), indicating a potential blowout, which typically leads to increased minutes for stars like Durant in the first half, allowing for more opportunities to pile up stat totals early.
→TREND: Durant's recent performance has shown a consistent upward trend, with his points per game increasing to 26.8 and combined stats regularly exceeding 36.5 in recent matchups.
→SITUATIONAL: Durant's average of 36.5 minutes per game indicates that he is heavily utilized. With no reported injuries or rest days, this consistency in minutes suggests he will have ample opportunity to surpass the combined figure.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Kevin Durant's recent averages show he has only surpassed 36.5 points, rebounds, and assists cumulatively in 2 out of his last 5 games, indicating a troubling trend toward lower production.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz rank as a poor defensive team, but the spread's size (Houston Rockets -13.5) suggests that this game could become a blowout, leading to Durant possibly being rested in the second half and limiting his overall stats.
→NARRATIVE: With the game having a high total of 228.5 and the Rockets heavily favored, the game script may favor an easier win for Houston, potentially resulting in fewer minutes and decreased usage for Durant if they establish a significant lead early.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, Durant's shooting has been strong, yet he has only averaged 6.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists, suggesting he may struggle to reach the necessary contributions in these categories to exceed 36.5 overall.
→SITUATIONAL: The game comes after a recent loss for the Rockets, and given they are 34-21 and seeking playoff positioning, it is likely they will focus on efficiency over individual performances, potentially leading to Durant having reduced minutes and production in this high-stakes matchup.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

-111+9.7% EV

Kyle Filipowski Under 22.5 points rebounds assists🎯

+100+6.0% EV

Lauri Markkanen Over 24.5 points rebounds assists🎯

-123+5.4% EV

Reed Sheppard Under 17.5 points rebounds assists🎯

-110+5.3% EV

Jabari Smith Jr Under 23.5 points rebounds assists💤

-106+4.8% EV