Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Brice Sensabaugh Under 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+106— stable
player assists
Brice Sensabaugh Under 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+106— stable
player assists
34.40
Composite Score
+4.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
24.60
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game script suggests that the Houston Rockets are likely to dominate, minimizing Brice Sensabaugh's opportunities as he plays a limited role, particularly in the context of a potentially one-sided game. His recent assist average is slightly above the threshold, but his involvement has been inconsistent and reduced in minutes, which aligns with the pro agent's case for the Under. The Net EV of 0.05 indicates only a very slight edge, making this wager not compelling enough considering the potential for limited action due to the game's expected flow.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Brice Sensabaugh is averaging only 1.8 assists over his last five games, falling at or just slightly above the 1.5 assists threshold, and has demonstrated inconsistency in generating assists with an average of 1.5 assists for the season.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 14.5 points, indicating a potential one-sided game. If the Rockets establish a large lead, Sensabaugh may receive limited playing minutes and opportunities to distribute assists.
- →NARRATIVE: The game's expected fast pace could lead to a higher volume of shots, but if the Rockets control the game, Sensabaugh’s role may be minimized, reducing the number of possessions that he could assist on.
- →TREND: Sensabaugh's involvement has been fluctuating, reflected in reduced minutes in recent games, such as only 6 minutes played against Utah Jazz previously, indicating limited opportunity for exceeding assist totals.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Jazz on a two-game losing streak and struggling overall this season, it's likely they will rely less on a younger player like Sensabaugh in critical game moments, which will negatively impact his assist potential.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Brice Sensabaugh has averaged 1.8 assists over his last 5 games, exceeding the 1.5 assists threshold, indicating he is currently trending positively in this statistical category.
- →MATCHUP: The matchup against the Utah Jazz presents a favorable opportunity; the Rockets are one of the higher-paced teams, which tends to create more opportunities for assists.
- →NARRATIVE: The game's high total of 226.5 implies a fast-paced and high-scoring matchup, likely leading to more assists for players like Sensabaugh.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, despite a slight decrease in overall points, Sensabaugh's assist numbers have remained steady, suggesting he is increasingly active in the playmaking role.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Houston Rockets being favored by 14.5 points, it suggests their offense will engage heavily, potentially resulting in more dish-outs and assisting opportunities for Sensabaugh.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Brice Sensabaugh is averaging only 1.8 assists over his last five games, falling at or just slightly above the 1.5 assists threshold, and has demonstrated inconsistency in generating assists with an average of 1.5 assists for the season.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 14.5 points, indicating a potential one-sided game. If the Rockets establish a large lead, Sensabaugh may receive limited playing minutes and opportunities to distribute assists.
- →NARRATIVE: The game's expected fast pace could lead to a higher volume of shots, but if the Rockets control the game, Sensabaugh’s role may be minimized, reducing the number of possessions that he could assist on.
- →TREND: Sensabaugh's involvement has been fluctuating, reflected in reduced minutes in recent games, such as only 6 minutes played against Utah Jazz previously, indicating limited opportunity for exceeding assist totals.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Jazz on a two-game losing streak and struggling overall this season, it's likely they will rely less on a younger player like Sensabaugh in critical game moments, which will negatively impact his assist potential.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available