Ace Bailey Under 1.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

+125— stable

player assists

Ace Bailey Under 1.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

+125— stable

player assists

35.90

Composite Score

+5.7%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

28.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expected game script suggests that the Jazz may struggle against the dominant Houston Rockets, likely limiting Ace Bailey's assist opportunities. With the Rockets favored by a significant spread of -13.5, it’s plausible that the game could turn into a blowout, reducing Bailey's chances of surpassing 1.5 assists. The Net EV of 0.06 indicates a slight edge, but given the balance of arguments, neither side strongly favors this bet, making it safer to pass.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Ace Bailey has averaged 1.6 assists over the last 5 games, which is only slightly over the threshold, suggesting he could easily fall short of exceeding 1.5 assists in any given game.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently sitting fourth in their division and have a strong defense, which might limit Bailey's opportunities to distribute the ball effectively against a playoff-contending team.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, the game script may favor Houston dominating the match, leading to less competitive play and fewer assist opportunities for Bailey.
→TREND: Bailey's recent performances indicate a lack of consistency as he has failed to consistently exceed the 1.5 assists mark, putting him at risk of underperforming again in this game context.
→SITUATIONAL: The context of a potential blowout could result in Bailey receiving fewer minutes if the Houston Rockets establish a significant lead, further decreasing his chances of recording more than 1.5 assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Ace Bailey has averaged 1.6 assists per game over his last five games, which puts him above the 1.5 assists threshold needed to exceed.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a fast pace of play, which benefits Ace Bailey by providing more opportunities for assists as the Jazz look to match pace.
→NARRATIVE: Given the 13.5 spread in favor of the Rockets, the game script likely involves the Jazz needing to take quick shots, creating more potential assists for Bailey as primary ball handlers will be more engaged.
→TREND: Ace Bailey has shown consistency in his recent games, hitting at least 2 assists in 3 of his last 5 games, demonstrating an upward trend in his assist production.
→SITUATIONAL: The Jazz's recent struggle with their defense and overall performance suggests a higher-scoring environment, which typically leads to increased assist opportunities for players like Bailey.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Ace Bailey has averaged 1.6 assists over the last 5 games, which is only slightly over the threshold, suggesting he could easily fall short of exceeding 1.5 assists in any given game.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently sitting fourth in their division and have a strong defense, which might limit Bailey's opportunities to distribute the ball effectively against a playoff-contending team.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, the game script may favor Houston dominating the match, leading to less competitive play and fewer assist opportunities for Bailey.
→TREND: Bailey's recent performances indicate a lack of consistency as he has failed to consistently exceed the 1.5 assists mark, putting him at risk of underperforming again in this game context.
→SITUATIONAL: The context of a potential blowout could result in Bailey receiving fewer minutes if the Houston Rockets establish a significant lead, further decreasing his chances of recording more than 1.5 assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2