Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Jabari Smith Jr Under 1.5 assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
+120— stable
player assists
Jabari Smith Jr Under 1.5 assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
+120— stable
player assists
46.80
Composite Score
+11.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
56.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the expected narrative of a blowout scenario with the Rockets being significant favorites, Jabari Smith Jr. is likely to see a reduction in minutes as the game progresses, which supports betting the Under on his assists. While he has averaged 3.0 assists over the last five games, the Jazz's ability to limit assist opportunities combined with the risk of Smith Jr. not playing to the game's conclusion makes this a reasonable wager. The Net EV of 0.11 suggests a slight underpricing by the market, which further reinforces the validity of this bet in the current context.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr.'s average assists per game stands at only 1.1 for the season and 3.0 over the last five games, indicating that while he may occasionally surpass 1.5 assists, he typically does not reach the threshold frequently.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are allowing an average of 23 assists per game to opponents, suggesting their defense is efficient at limiting assists, making it harder for Smith to distribute effectively given this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Houston Rockets favored by a significant 13.5 points, this game is likely to be a blowout, limiting the number of minutes Smith will have to engage in playmaking if the starters are pulled early, which would impact his assist numbers.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Smith has recorded assists of 2, 0, 2, 0, and 4, demonstrating inconsistency in reaching the needed 1.5 assists mark over this span and signifying a volatile performance trend.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game total is high at 228.5, but given the spread indicates a high likelihood of a blowout, this scenario could lead to reduced minutes for Smith if the Rockets take a commanding lead, thereby affecting his ability to surpass 1.5 assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: In Jabari Smith Jr's last 5 games, he averaged 3.0 assists per game, significantly exceeding the 1.5 assists threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored to win by 13.5 points, which indicates a high-paced game environment where Jabari Smith Jr is likely to have more opportunities to distribute the ball.
- →NARRATIVE: The expected blowout scenario suggests that the Rockets will maintain a lead, prompting continuous offensive play from Smith Jr, maximizing his chances to assist as the primary ballhandler.
- →TREND: Jabari Smith Jr has shown improvement in his assist numbers recently, with an upward trend that aligns with his increased involvement in the offense, making it likely he will exceed the 1.5 assists mark.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets, currently sitting at 34-21, are in a competitive playoff position and are likely to lean on Smith Jr's capabilities to secure a strong home performance against a struggling Jazz team.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr.'s average assists per game stands at only 1.1 for the season and 3.0 over the last five games, indicating that while he may occasionally surpass 1.5 assists, he typically does not reach the threshold frequently.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are allowing an average of 23 assists per game to opponents, suggesting their defense is efficient at limiting assists, making it harder for Smith to distribute effectively given this matchup.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Houston Rockets favored by a significant 13.5 points, this game is likely to be a blowout, limiting the number of minutes Smith will have to engage in playmaking if the starters are pulled early, which would impact his assist numbers.
- →TREND: In the last five games, Smith has recorded assists of 2, 0, 2, 0, and 4, demonstrating inconsistency in reaching the needed 1.5 assists mark over this span and signifying a volatile performance trend.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game total is high at 228.5, but given the spread indicates a high likelihood of a blowout, this scenario could lead to reduced minutes for Smith if the Rockets take a commanding lead, thereby affecting his ability to surpass 1.5 assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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