Tari Eason Over 1.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

-184— stable

player assists

Tari Eason Over 1.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

-184— stable

player assists

64.00

Composite Score

+21.7%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

90.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, the Houston Rockets are expected to maintain a strong offensive presence against a lowly ranked Utah Jazz defense, creating ample opportunities for assists. Tari Eason's consistent recent performance, averaging 1.8 assists over the last five games, aligns with the narrative of a high-scoring game where he will be actively involved despite the spread suggesting a blowout. The Net EV of 0.22 indicates that this wager is underpriced by the market, supporting the likelihood that Eason will exceed 1.5 assists given the expected game dynamics.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Tari Eason has averaged 1.8 assists over the last 5 games, indicating a strong recent performance exceeding the 1.5 assists threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz rank low in defensive efficiency, making them susceptible to assists, which favors Eason as he will have opportunities to facilitate scoring.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 14.5 in favor of the Houston Rockets, the game script suggests that Eason will be involved more offensively to maintain control and generate assists in a potentially high-scoring environment.
→TREND: Eason's recent trend shows a steady increase in minutes played, averaging nearly 30 minutes per game in the last five games, which correlates positively with higher assist totals.
→SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are playing at home, where they tend to perform better, allowing Eason to capitalize on his teammates' scoring while benefiting from the home court advantage.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 0%

Evidence

→STATS: Tari Eason's season average for assists is 1.5, and while he has averaged 1.8 assists in his last five games, this is barely above the threshold, meaning he is not consistently producing at a level to exceed 1.5 assists.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are heavily favored with a spread of -14.5, indicating a likely blowout situation, which often leads to reduced playing time and opportunities for assist accumulation for starters like Eason.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected high-scoring game total of 226.5, there could be a focus on scoring rather than playmaking, as both teams may prioritize offense, limiting Eason's ability to dish assists as he may not have the chance to facilitate.
→TREND: In the last five games, Eason has only exceeded 1.5 assists in two games, suggesting inconsistency in his ability to contribute assists, especially considering his recent assist average of 1.8 might not hold against a strong opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and may tighten their rotation to regain momentum, which could result in Eason being used in a limited role, further hindering his chances to exceed the 1.5 assists mark.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Tari Eason has averaged 1.8 assists over the last 5 games, indicating a strong recent performance exceeding the 1.5 assists threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz rank low in defensive efficiency, making them susceptible to assists, which favors Eason as he will have opportunities to facilitate scoring.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 14.5 in favor of the Houston Rockets, the game script suggests that Eason will be involved more offensively to maintain control and generate assists in a potentially high-scoring environment.
→TREND: Eason's recent trend shows a steady increase in minutes played, averaging nearly 30 minutes per game in the last five games, which correlates positively with higher assist totals.
→SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are playing at home, where they tend to perform better, allowing Eason to capitalize on his teammates' scoring while benefiting from the home court advantage.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2