Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Jabari Smith Jr Over 12.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1660↓376%|+1311
player rebounds alternate
Jabari Smith Jr Over 12.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1660↓376%|+1311
player rebounds alternate
63.00
Composite Score
+41.1%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
85.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, I expect Jabari Smith Jr. to have plenty of rebounding opportunities against a weak Utah Jazz frontcourt, especially considering the Rockets are heavily favored and likely to dominate the game. Smith Jr. has demonstrated a consistent ability to exceed the 12.5 rebounds mark recently, bolstered by his team's need to secure the ball as they look to bounce back from a loss. The Net EV of 0.41 indicates that the bet is underpriced, and the well-aligned narrative supports a strong case for hitting the Over.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 93%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has been averaging 10.0 rebounds per game over the last 5 games, which significantly exceeds the 3.5 rebounds threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing the Utah Jazz, who have a weaker frontcourt, which allows for greater rebounding opportunities for players like Jabari Smith Jr.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, a large lead could see Smith Jr. playing heavy minutes, likely resulting in increased rebound opportunities as he secures the ball for his team.
- →TREND: Smith Jr. has consistently achieved over 10 rebounds in several recent games, showcasing a strong trend of performance that supports hitting the over on 3.5 rebounds.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are currently seeking to bounce back from a loss, increasing their urgency in this game, which should lead to increased hustling and rebounding efforts from key players like Smith Jr.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: ESPN API, ESPN API
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has an average of 10.0 rebounds per game over his last 5 games, which could indicate he might exceed the threshold; however, statistics can be misleading without context, especially in a potential blowout scenario.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are heavily favored by 13.5 points, which often leads to the starters being pulled early if the game turns into a blowout, thus limiting Smith's rebounding chances.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 228.5, teams may focus on scoring, which can lead to less emphasis on rebounding, especially if the game is high-paced and points are scored rapidly.
- →TREND: Smith's rebounding numbers can fluctuate significantly based on game flow. In the last matchup against the Rockets, he recorded only 10 rebounds but mostly benefited from his team’s need for rebounding due to being competitive in that game.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are facing the Jazz, who have a poor record (18-39), which could lead to a lack of competitiveness and less focus on individual rebounding efforts, further risking diminished minutes for Smith as the game progresses.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 93%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr. has been averaging 10.0 rebounds per game over the last 5 games, which significantly exceeds the 3.5 rebounds threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing the Utah Jazz, who have a weaker frontcourt, which allows for greater rebounding opportunities for players like Jabari Smith Jr.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, a large lead could see Smith Jr. playing heavy minutes, likely resulting in increased rebound opportunities as he secures the ball for his team.
- →TREND: Smith Jr. has consistently achieved over 10 rebounds in several recent games, showcasing a strong trend of performance that supports hitting the over on 3.5 rebounds.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are currently seeking to bounce back from a loss, increasing their urgency in this game, which should lead to increased hustling and rebounding efforts from key players like Smith Jr.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: ESPN API, ESPN API
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available