Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Kyle Filipowski Over 14.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1500↓625%|+1293
player rebounds alternate
Kyle Filipowski Over 14.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1500↓625%|+1293
player rebounds alternate
65.30
Composite Score
+47.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
92.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The expectation for a high-scoring game with a total of 228.5 points suggests plenty of possession and rebounding opportunities, which works in Filipowski's favor for exceeding 14.5 rebounds. Moreover, his recent performance trend shows improved rebounding, and against the Jazz he has historically performed well, pulling down 13 rebounds in their last matchup. The Net EV of 0.47 supports this lean, indicating that the market may have undervalued his potential, particularly considering the dynamics of the expected game script.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 97%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has averaged 8.8 rebounds per game over the last five games, significantly exceeding the 3.5 rebounds threshold.
- →MATCHUP: Filipowski has demonstrated strong rebounding performance specifically against the Utah Jazz, pulling down 13.0 rebounds in their last encounter.
- →NARRATIVE: The game features a high total of 228.5 points, which typically leads to more possessions and opportunities for rebounds.
- →TREND: Filipowski's recent performance shows an upward trend in rebounding, as he has recorded 9 or more rebounds in three of his last five games.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, indicating a potential blowout; this could lead to increased minutes and extra rebound opportunities for Filipowski late in the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: In the last 5 games, Filipowski averaged 8.8 rebounds, but prior games against specific opponents indicate volatility in performance; he also had 4 rebounds against Memphis and only 10 against the Jazz previously. This inconsistency raises doubts about his ability to exceed 3.5 rebounds consistently.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a strong frontcourt that can compete on the boards, which may limit Filipowski's rebounding opportunities, especially in a matchup where dominance is expected due to the spread of -13.5 indicating the Rockets will likely control the game.
- →NARRATIVE: With the high spread, the game script might favor the Rockets dominating early and taking a lead, potentially leading to a scenario where starters, including Filipowski, could see reduced minutes if the game turns into a blowout.
- →TREND: Filipowski has shown recent underperformance relative to expectations; although he had good rebounding numbers, they were against teams that are not as effective in rebounding as the Rockets, who allow only 44.5 rebounds per game to opponents.
- →SITUATIONAL: Filipowski's role may be impacted by load management or tactical adjustments. If the Rockets maintain a substantial lead, it is plausible that Filipowski's minute allocation could drop significantly, limiting his chances to gather offensive and defensive rebounds.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4378856/kyle-filipowski, https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU, https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/UTA
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 97%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kyle Filipowski has averaged 8.8 rebounds per game over the last five games, significantly exceeding the 3.5 rebounds threshold.
- →MATCHUP: Filipowski has demonstrated strong rebounding performance specifically against the Utah Jazz, pulling down 13.0 rebounds in their last encounter.
- →NARRATIVE: The game features a high total of 228.5 points, which typically leads to more possessions and opportunities for rebounds.
- →TREND: Filipowski's recent performance shows an upward trend in rebounding, as he has recorded 9 or more rebounds in three of his last five games.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, indicating a potential blowout; this could lead to increased minutes and extra rebound opportunities for Filipowski late in the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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