Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson Over 12.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1160↓299%|+869
player rebounds alternate
Amen Thompson Over 12.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1160↓299%|+869
player rebounds alternate
61.50
Composite Score
+57.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
80.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, the Houston Rockets are expected to dominate against Utah Jazz, which likely leads to more missed shots from the Jazz, increasing Amen Thompson's rebounding opportunities. Despite some volatility in Thompson's rebounding numbers, his strong recent average and favorable matchup against a team that struggles defensively on the boards make the Over 12.5 a solid bet. The Net EV of 0.57 indicates the market underpriced this prop, suggesting there's good value given Thompson's potential to grab rebounds in a game script that favors him.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson is averaging 7.4 rebounds over his last five games, significantly above the 3.5 threshold, showcasing his strong ability to hit the over on this stat.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are playing against a Utah Jazz team ranked 13th in defensive rebounds per game, suggesting Thompson will have ample opportunities to collect boards.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of -13.5 for the Rockets, it's likely they will dominate the game, leading to more opportunities for Thompson to grab rebounds as the Jazz may miss more shots.
- →TREND: Thompson recorded 9 rebounds in his last matchup against the Houston Rockets, indicating a favorable trend in this specific matchup that could likely repeat.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Jazz on a two-game losing streak and not being a playoff contender, they may struggle, which could lead to more missed shots and consequently more rebounding opportunities for Thompson.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 7.4 rebounds in the last 5 games, but these stats show volatility, with games producing 4.0 and 6.0 rebounds, indicating inconsistency in exceeding 3.5 rebounds.
- →MATCHUP: The matchup against the Utah Jazz suggests a potential for low rebounding opportunities, as they rank well defensively and can limit possession time for the Rockets, impacting Thompson's ability to collect boards.
- →NARRATIVE: The game features a significant spread (Rockets -13.5), likely leading to a scenario where Thompson and other starters may see reduced minutes in a potential blowout, particularly in the second half.
- →TREND: In their recent game against the Rockets, Thompson recorded only 4 rebounds while playing 41 minutes, showing that even in high-minute games against this specific opponent, he struggled to exceed the threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Rockets being favored heavily, there’s a risk of a blowout situation that could see Thompson's minutes limited, further decreasing his chances of grabbing more than 3.5 rebounds.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson is averaging 7.4 rebounds over his last five games, significantly above the 3.5 threshold, showcasing his strong ability to hit the over on this stat.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are playing against a Utah Jazz team ranked 13th in defensive rebounds per game, suggesting Thompson will have ample opportunities to collect boards.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of -13.5 for the Rockets, it's likely they will dominate the game, leading to more opportunities for Thompson to grab rebounds as the Jazz may miss more shots.
- →TREND: Thompson recorded 9 rebounds in his last matchup against the Houston Rockets, indicating a favorable trend in this specific matchup that could likely repeat.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Jazz on a two-game losing streak and not being a playoff contender, they may struggle, which could lead to more missed shots and consequently more rebounding opportunities for Thompson.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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