Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Clint Capela Over 6.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+250↓142%|+850
player rebounds alternate
Clint Capela Over 6.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+250↓142%|+850
player rebounds alternate
76.10
Composite Score
+58.3%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
87.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, Clint Capela is likely to benefit from a favorable game script as the Rockets are expected to dominate against a Jazz team that struggles against strong centers. The combination of his previous performance against the Jazz and the high spread suggests that Capela will have ample opportunity to increase his rebounding totals, over his current average. The Net EV of 0.58 indicates that this bet is underpriced in the market, reinforcing a strong case for betting Over 6.5 rebounds.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Clint Capela has averaged 4.4 rebounds over his last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 2.5 rebounds threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz struggle against dominant centers, which will likely provide Capela with more opportunities to secure rebounds.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of -13.5 in favor of the Houston Rockets, it is expected that the game will be competitive enough to keep Capela on the floor for ample minutes to boost rebound totals.
- →TREND: In a recent game against the same Houston Rockets, Capela registered 7 rebounds in just 18 minutes, demonstrating his potential to exceed 2.5 rebounds comfortably.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and are playing at home, which typically amplifies performance and motivation to dominate on the boards, providing a favorable context for Capela to thrive.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 0%
Evidence
- →STATS: Clint Capela's last 5 games have shown a decline in rebounding, averaging only 4.4 rebounds/game, and he has not reached 3 rebounds in 3 of those games.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, indicating a potential for a blowout where starters may play limited minutes, negatively impacting Capela's rebounding opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: If the game unfolds as predicted, with a significant lead for the Rockets, Capela could see reduced playing time, lowering his chances to grab rebounds.
- →TREND: In matchups against the Jazz in recent games, Capela has recorded 2 rebounds or fewer multiple times while averaging just 2 rebounds in his last two meetings against them.
- →SITUATIONAL: With his average of only 21.4 minutes per game this season, combined with the potential for limited minutes in a blowout, this significantly reduces Capela's opportunities to exceed 2.5 rebounds.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Clint Capela has averaged 4.4 rebounds over his last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 2.5 rebounds threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz struggle against dominant centers, which will likely provide Capela with more opportunities to secure rebounds.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of -13.5 in favor of the Houston Rockets, it is expected that the game will be competitive enough to keep Capela on the floor for ample minutes to boost rebound totals.
- →TREND: In a recent game against the same Houston Rockets, Capela registered 7 rebounds in just 18 minutes, demonstrating his potential to exceed 2.5 rebounds comfortably.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss and are playing at home, which typically amplifies performance and motivation to dominate on the boards, providing a favorable context for Capela to thrive.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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