Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Jabari Smith Jr Over 11.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1000↓170%|+630
player rebounds alternate
Jabari Smith Jr Over 11.5 rebounds alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1000↓170%|+630
player rebounds alternate
64.50
Composite Score
+43.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
90.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, the expectation is for a high-scoring game with increased pace, which typically offers more rebounding opportunities. Jabari Smith Jr. has been trending upwards with double-digit rebounds in some recent games and is positioned to benefit from a game environment where the Rockets dominate play, likely leading to more missed shots from the Jazz. The Net EV of 0.43 supports this angle, indicating the bookmakers may have undervalued Smith's rebounding potential given the context of the game.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr.'s verified average for rebounds over the last 5 games is 10.0, significantly exceeding the 3.5 rebound threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are heavily favored in this matchup with a spread of -13.5, which suggests they'll dominate play, increasing Jadari Smith Jr.'s opportunities for rebounds.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 228.5 points for the game, a fast-paced environment is expected, leading to increased possessions and more rebounding chances for Smith.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Smith has consistently recorded double-digit rebounds in three of the games, showcasing a strong trend towards exceeding the 3.5 rebounds mark.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Utah Jazz are struggling, holding an 18-39 record and currently on a two-game losing streak, which may lead to more missed shots and further increase the rebound opportunities for Smith.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4412672/jabari-smith, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/utah/utah-jazz, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/hou/houston-rockets
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Although Jabari Smith Jr. has averaged 10.0 rebounds per game over the last 5 games, this high average may not sustain in a game where the spread is significant (Houston Rockets -13.5), indicating potential limited minutes in a blowout scenario.
- →MATCHUP: The matchup against the Utah Jazz, who do not have dominant rebounding big men, typically does not favor Smith's rebounding. However, the Rockets are highly favored which could mean him playing fewer minutes if the game is out of reach, reducing rebound opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: The large spread suggests a blowout is likely. If the game turns into a lopsided affair, the Rockets may pull their starters early, greatly diminishing Smith's chances of exceeding 3.5 rebounds as he may see reduced court time.
- →TREND: Despite strong individual performance lately, there is an overarching trend in the NBA that players often underperform in games where their team is favored by a large margin, leading to inconsistent rebound counts in such scenarios.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets have recently lost their last game and might be pressing to regain form. This could lead to an emphasis on scoring over rebounding, particularly in a game projected to be high-scoring, further detracting from Smith's rebounding opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Jabari Smith Jr.'s verified average for rebounds over the last 5 games is 10.0, significantly exceeding the 3.5 rebound threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are heavily favored in this matchup with a spread of -13.5, which suggests they'll dominate play, increasing Jadari Smith Jr.'s opportunities for rebounds.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 228.5 points for the game, a fast-paced environment is expected, leading to increased possessions and more rebounding chances for Smith.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Smith has consistently recorded double-digit rebounds in three of the games, showcasing a strong trend towards exceeding the 3.5 rebounds mark.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Utah Jazz are struggling, holding an 18-39 record and currently on a two-game losing streak, which may lead to more missed shots and further increase the rebound opportunities for Smith.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4412672/jabari-smith, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/utah/utah-jazz, https://www.espn.com/nba/team/_/name/hou/houston-rockets
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