Amen Thompson Over 0.5 threes

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+220— stable

player threes

Amen Thompson Over 0.5 threes

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+220— stable

player threes

41.20

Composite Score

+2.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

12.80

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Considering the game's expected high pace and scoring opportunities, there are elements supporting Amen Thompson's chances to hit at least one three-pointer. However, his recent inability to make any threes coupled with the risk of limited minutes in a potential blowout scenario reduces the confidence in this bet, as the narrative surrounding potential less involvement in a lopsided game weighs heavily against it. The Net EV of 0.03 indicates a slight edge, but it isn't strong enough to justify a wager given the strong counterarguments.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 12.8 FG attempts per game and 16.0 points over the last 5 games, indicating he has a higher probability of attempting threes, even if he hasn't hit any recently.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are known for their fast-paced style and high-scoring games, creating ample opportunities for players like Thompson to take shots, especially three-pointers.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 13.5 in favor of the Rockets, the game is expected to be competitive, allowing Thompson to play significant minutes and take more shots, potentially leading him to exceed 0.5 threes.
→TREND: Although Thompson's recent 3P percentage is 0.0, players can often bounce back quickly from slumps; his overall scoring trend indicates he is involved actively in offensive plays, which could lead to making a three.
→SITUATIONAL: The game total of 228.5 suggests a high-scoring affair, which typically increases the likelihood of players taking—and making—more three-point shots as the teams push for offense.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: source1, source2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Amen Thompson's recent performance shows he has not made any three-pointers in the last 5 games (3PM/Game: 0.0), making it highly unlikely he will exceed 0.5 threes in this matchup.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are currently favored by 13.5 points, suggesting a potential blowout scenario; if the Rockets establish a large lead, Thompson may not play heavy minutes later in the game, further diminishing his chances to hit a three.
→NARRATIVE: The game total of 228.5 is considered high, but in a potential blowout, the pace of play might not favor Thompson to get open looks from three, as the scoring may be more concentrated among their starting players.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, Amen Thompson's shooting efficiency from three has plummeted with his 3P% at 0.0%, indicating he has been unable to find his shooting rhythm and is unlikely to suddenly find success in this game.
→SITUATIONAL: Thompson's recent performances have resulted in heavy reliance on drives and mid-range shots rather than three-point attempts; this trend, coupled with potential limited minutes due to a lopsided scoreline, further suggests that hitting even a single three-pointer feels improbable.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 12.8 FG attempts per game and 16.0 points over the last 5 games, indicating he has a higher probability of attempting threes, even if he hasn't hit any recently.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are known for their fast-paced style and high-scoring games, creating ample opportunities for players like Thompson to take shots, especially three-pointers.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 13.5 in favor of the Rockets, the game is expected to be competitive, allowing Thompson to play significant minutes and take more shots, potentially leading him to exceed 0.5 threes.
→TREND: Although Thompson's recent 3P percentage is 0.0, players can often bounce back quickly from slumps; his overall scoring trend indicates he is involved actively in offensive plays, which could lead to making a three.
→SITUATIONAL: The game total of 228.5 suggests a high-scoring affair, which typically increases the likelihood of players taking—and making—more three-point shots as the teams push for offense.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: source1, source2