Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Cody Williams Over 0.5 threes
🎯 Core Value Bet
+135— stable
player threes
Cody Williams Over 0.5 threes
🎯 Core Value Bet
+135— stable
player threes
36.40
Composite Score
+6.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
29.80
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This bet on Cody Williams hitting Over 0.5 three-pointers makes sense given the expected high-scoring nature of the game, with a total set at 228.5. The Houston Rockets' defensive strategy could provide Williams with open looks, especially as he is likely to have more opportunities to shoot. While his recent performance has been subpar, the dynamics of the game script suggest that he will need to step up and take more shots to keep pace, which validates the slight positive EV of 0.06.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has a three-point shooting percentage of 6.7% in his last five games, which is low, but he has been averaging 3.4 FG attempts per game, indicating opportunities for more three-point attempts.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets' defensive strategy may allow for open three-point shots, especially given their spread of -13.5, which suggests they may allow the Jazz to take more perimeter shots in their effort to secure control of the game.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the expected high-scoring total of 228.5, this game may see increased pace and more possessions, providing Cody Williams with more opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc.
- →TREND: Although Cody has only made 0.2 threes per game recently, any increase in minutes or attempts can lead to an outcome where he exceeds 0.5 three-pointers. Players often step up in higher-stakes games, particularly if the Jazz try to keep pace.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz have lost their last two games and may push harder to generate scoring against a higher-ranked opponent, which can lead to an increase in shot attempts for players like Cody Williams, enhancing his chances of hitting at least one three.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams' 3PM average over the last 5 games is only 0.2, and his 3-point percentage in that span has plummeted to 6.7%, indicating a severe lack of shooting success.
- →MATCHUP: In a game where the Houston Rockets are favored by 13.5 points, the potential for a blowout means the starters, including Williams, may not see enough floor time to attempt multiple three-point shots.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the current team dynamics with the Rockets as front-runners and the Jazz struggling significantly, the game script is likely to limit Williams’ shooting opportunities in favor of more established teammates.
- →TREND: Over his last five games, Williams has consistently underperformed in scoring with just 3.0 points per game, highlighting his diminished role in offensive plays crucial for making multiple three-point shots.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz’s overall record of 18-39 points to a lack of competitive consistency, suggesting that even if it is a high-scoring game on paper, the Jazz may not be able to keep pace, limiting Williams' involvement in offensive plays.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Cody Williams has a three-point shooting percentage of 6.7% in his last five games, which is low, but he has been averaging 3.4 FG attempts per game, indicating opportunities for more three-point attempts.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets' defensive strategy may allow for open three-point shots, especially given their spread of -13.5, which suggests they may allow the Jazz to take more perimeter shots in their effort to secure control of the game.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the expected high-scoring total of 228.5, this game may see increased pace and more possessions, providing Cody Williams with more opportunities to shoot from beyond the arc.
- →TREND: Although Cody has only made 0.2 threes per game recently, any increase in minutes or attempts can lead to an outcome where he exceeds 0.5 three-pointers. Players often step up in higher-stakes games, particularly if the Jazz try to keep pace.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Jazz have lost their last two games and may push harder to generate scoring against a higher-ranked opponent, which can lead to an increase in shot attempts for players like Cody Williams, enhancing his chances of hitting at least one three.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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