Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Ace Bailey Under 5.5 rebounds assists
💤 Noise Bet
+105— stable
player rebounds assists
Ace Bailey Under 5.5 rebounds assists
💤 Noise Bet
+105— stable
player rebounds assists
34.10
Composite Score
+4.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
23.60
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given that Ace Bailey is averaging only 4.4 combined rebounds and assists, and facing a strong rebounding team like the Houston Rockets, it's expected that he will struggle to exceed the 5.5 mark. Additionally, with the game likely being a blowout, he may see reduced minutes, further decreasing his opportunities to contribute. The Net EV of 0.05 suggests only a slight edge, indicating that the market has priced this correctly enough that it's not worth pursuing this wager.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey is averaging 4.4 combined rebounds and assists (1.6 assists and 2.8 rebounds), which is well below the 5.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: Facing the Houston Rockets, who have a strong rebounding presence, could limit Bailey's rebounding opportunities and thus decrease his overall combined stats.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be a blowout, Bailey may see reduced minutes as Houston is favored by 13.5 points, decreasing his chances of exceeding 5.5 rebounds and assists.
- →TREND: In his last game against Utah, Bailey recorded only 1 rebound and 1 assist, totaling 2, which suggests a consistent pattern of underperformance.
- →SITUATIONAL: After a recent losing streak, the Utah Jazz may tighten their rotation, meaning Bailey could have less opportunity to contribute in both rebounds and assists as they play more cautiously.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey is averaging 1.6 assists and 2.8 rebounds per game over the last five games, totaling 4.4 combined. With increased minutes, he can exceed the threshold of 5.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets have a high-paced offense, which could lead to more possessions and increased opportunities for Bailey to accumulate assists and rebounds during the game.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, it's likely the game will maintain a fast tempo, providing Bailey with ample playing time to contribute in rebounds and assists.
- →TREND: In his recent game against the Memphis Grizzlies, Bailey recorded 4 rebounds, which indicates he has the potential to step up, especially against another competitive team like the Rockets.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Utah Jazz are experiencing struggles with a record of 18-39 and have lost their last two games, which may lead to increased reliance on younger players like Bailey to contribute, possibly allowing him to exceed 5.5 combined rebounds and assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey is averaging 4.4 combined rebounds and assists (1.6 assists and 2.8 rebounds), which is well below the 5.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: Facing the Houston Rockets, who have a strong rebounding presence, could limit Bailey's rebounding opportunities and thus decrease his overall combined stats.
- →NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be a blowout, Bailey may see reduced minutes as Houston is favored by 13.5 points, decreasing his chances of exceeding 5.5 rebounds and assists.
- →TREND: In his last game against Utah, Bailey recorded only 1 rebound and 1 assist, totaling 2, which suggests a consistent pattern of underperformance.
- →SITUATIONAL: After a recent losing streak, the Utah Jazz may tighten their rotation, meaning Bailey could have less opportunity to contribute in both rebounds and assists as they play more cautiously.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
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