Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Ace Bailey Under 15.5 points assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
-104— stable
player points assists
Ace Bailey Under 15.5 points assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
-104— stable
player points assists
39.50
Composite Score
+8.7%
Net EV
65.00
Narrative Fit
23.60
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In the anticipated matchup between the Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets, Ace Bailey is expected to struggle to reach the points and assists total of 15.5. The game's expected lopsided nature, indicated by the Rockets being favored by 14.5 points, suggests fewer competitive minutes for Bailey, likely reducing his playmaking opportunities as the game unfolds. With a Net EV of 0.09, this bet reflects a consensus that the market has undervalued Bailey’s current production capabilities based on the evidence provided, making it a strong pick.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey's assists per game average is only 1.6, which is significantly below the threshold of 15.5 and suggests he does not have the playmaking volume to reach that number.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 14.5 points, which suggests a high likelihood of a blowout. This could lead to Bailey being pulled early in a lopsided game, reducing his opportunities for assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the expected blowout, the game script may favor less play for Bailey, limiting his ability to generate assists as the starters are likely to play fewer minutes in a non-competitive game.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Bailey has not exceeded 5 assists in any single game, indicating a consistent underperformance relative to the required total of 15.5.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Utah Jazz struggling as evidenced by their current record (18-39) and recent losing streak, there may be less focus on individual offensive production, further reducing Bailey's chances of hitting the 15.5 assists mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 15%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey averages 1.6 assists per game over the last 5 games, suggesting limited current playmaking impact. However, scoring and assists may improve with increased extended minutes given the blowout risk of +14.5 spread.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets' offense has shown to have a high-paced style, leading to more possessions, which can offer Ace Bailey more opportunities to exceed his assist threshold.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total of 226.5 for the game, heavy offensive action is expected, creating a higher likelihood for Ace Bailey to aggregate points and assists as the game pace should allow for more scoring opportunities.
- →TREND: While Ace Bailey has scored an average of 9.2 points in the last 5 games, his opportunities may increase in a high-scoring game, particularly against a weak defensive team like the Rockets.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets are coming off a loss and may ramp up their intensity against a struggling Utah Jazz team, leading to potentially extended play for all players, including Ace Bailey, who could see increased minutes throughout.
Thesis: moderate
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Ace Bailey's assists per game average is only 1.6, which is significantly below the threshold of 15.5 and suggests he does not have the playmaking volume to reach that number.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are favored by 14.5 points, which suggests a high likelihood of a blowout. This could lead to Bailey being pulled early in a lopsided game, reducing his opportunities for assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the expected blowout, the game script may favor less play for Bailey, limiting his ability to generate assists as the starters are likely to play fewer minutes in a non-competitive game.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Bailey has not exceeded 5 assists in any single game, indicating a consistent underperformance relative to the required total of 15.5.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Utah Jazz struggling as evidenced by their current record (18-39) and recent losing streak, there may be less focus on individual offensive production, further reducing Bailey's chances of hitting the 15.5 assists mark.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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