Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson Under 12.5 rebounds assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
+102↓173%|+242
player rebounds assists
Amen Thompson Under 12.5 rebounds assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
+102↓173%|+242
player rebounds assists
35.10
Composite Score
+5.3%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
26.40
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game script suggests a potential blowout in favor of the Rockets against the struggling Jazz, which could limit Amen Thompson's playing time, directly affecting his ability to reach the Under 12.5 rebounds and assists. While Thompson has shown some strong averages recently, the tough matchup against Utah and the likelihood of reduced minutes as a result of a comfortable lead make this line a reasonable target. The Net EV of 0.05 indicates a slight edge in our favor, supporting the notion that the market may be underestimating the impact of the game circumstances.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson's recent average for rebounds and assists combined is 13.4, but this figure is driven up by one game (12 rebounds). In other games, he has fallen short, with totals of 10 and 9 in critical contests. This inconsistency makes exceeding 12.5 rebounds and assists unlikely.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz allow a lower rebound and assist rate to opposing guards compared to teams in the lower tier of defenses. This matchup could limit Thompson's opportunities to accumulate those numbers, pushing his total down.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the Rockets are favored heavily, the game script might lead to a comfortable lead, which could result in Thompson's reduced playing time as starters are pulled in garbage time, hurting his rebound and assist totals.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Thompson's combined rebounds and assists have not surpassed 12.5 in three of those outings. This trend of underperformance indicates that he might continue to struggle in achieving the threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: The impending blowout risk associated with a 13.5 spread against a struggling Utah team suggests Thompson may not have the opportunity to play significant minutes, curtailing both his rebounds and assists potential.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 20%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson averaged 6.0 assists and 7.4 rebounds over his last 5 games, giving him a combined average of 13.4 rebounds and assists, well above the threshold of 12.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz are struggling defensively, which should create more opportunities for Thompson to accumulate both rebounds and assists as the Rockets control the pace of the game.
- →NARRATIVE: With a high total of 228.5 and the Rockets favored by 13.5 points, the game script suggests that Thompson will play significant minutes, likely pushing him over the 12.5 mark in rebounding and assists.
- →TREND: Thompson has been trending upward in his overall production, notching a total of 12 rebounds and assists in 2 of his last 5 games, demonstrating the potential to exceed the current line.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the Rockets are competing for playoff positioning and are facing a weaker opponent in the Jazz, Thompson will likely see extended minutes and usage in this critical matchup.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: data not available, data not available
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson's recent average for rebounds and assists combined is 13.4, but this figure is driven up by one game (12 rebounds). In other games, he has fallen short, with totals of 10 and 9 in critical contests. This inconsistency makes exceeding 12.5 rebounds and assists unlikely.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz allow a lower rebound and assist rate to opposing guards compared to teams in the lower tier of defenses. This matchup could limit Thompson's opportunities to accumulate those numbers, pushing his total down.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the Rockets are favored heavily, the game script might lead to a comfortable lead, which could result in Thompson's reduced playing time as starters are pulled in garbage time, hurting his rebound and assist totals.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Thompson's combined rebounds and assists have not surpassed 12.5 in three of those outings. This trend of underperformance indicates that he might continue to struggle in achieving the threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: The impending blowout risk associated with a 13.5 spread against a struggling Utah team suggests Thompson may not have the opportunity to play significant minutes, curtailing both his rebounds and assists potential.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com
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