Ace Bailey Under 15.5 points assists

💤 Noise Bet

-110— stable

player points assists

Ace Bailey Under 15.5 points assists

💤 Noise Bet

-110— stable

player points assists

34.90

Composite Score

+5.2%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

25.80

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given that Ace Bailey has averaged only 1.6 assists over his last five games and is likely to face a strong defensive team in the Houston Rockets, the Under on his points and assists appears more probable. Additionally, the game's expected blowout could lead to reduced minutes for Bailey, further diminishing his chances of exceeding the 15.5 mark. The Net EV of 0.05 indicates a slight edge, but it does not provide enough confidence to warrant a bet given the conflicting narratives.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Ace Bailey averages only 1.6 assists per game over his last five games, far below the threshold of 15.5 points-assists, making it highly unlikely he can exceed that mark.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are a strong defensive team, which could limit scoring opportunities for Bailey, further hindering his ability to accumulate assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the game has a large spread of 13.5 points in favor of the Rockets, it's likely that it will become a blowout, resulting in reduced minutes for Bailey and thus limiting his chances for assists.
→TREND: In his last five games, Bailey has consistently underperformed his assist average, which shows a troubling trend of being unable to contribute significantly across multiple games.
→SITUATIONAL: Ace Bailey's team, the Utah Jazz, is struggling, currently sitting with an 18-39 record and on a two-game losing streak, which may affect their overall play and Bailey's offensive involvement.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Ace Bailey has averaged 1.6 assists per game over his last five games, but his increased role as the game becomes competitive could push him beyond this average, especially given a high total of 228.5.
→MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz rank in the bottom tier defensively, often allowing high assist totals, which suggests that Ace Bailey could find opportunities to facilitate scoring effectively.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread at Houston Rockets -13.5, it's expected to be a high-paced game, translating to more possessions and potential for increased assist opportunities for Ace Bailey.
→TREND: Although Ace Bailey's average assists per game is low, the previous game against the Jazz where he recorded only 1 assist could serve as motivation, ensuring a more aggressive play style to exceed his previous numbers.
→SITUATIONAL: The Rockets' recent loss may prompt a stronger performance overall, and with the urgency to bounce back, increased minutes and a higher usage rate for players like Bailey could occur, favoring his assists total.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN API

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Ace Bailey averages only 1.6 assists per game over his last five games, far below the threshold of 15.5 points-assists, making it highly unlikely he can exceed that mark.
→MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are a strong defensive team, which could limit scoring opportunities for Bailey, further hindering his ability to accumulate assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the game has a large spread of 13.5 points in favor of the Rockets, it's likely that it will become a blowout, resulting in reduced minutes for Bailey and thus limiting his chances for assists.
→TREND: In his last five games, Bailey has consistently underperformed his assist average, which shows a troubling trend of being unable to contribute significantly across multiple games.
→SITUATIONAL: Ace Bailey's team, the Utah Jazz, is struggling, currently sitting with an 18-39 record and on a two-game losing streak, which may affect their overall play and Bailey's offensive involvement.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2