Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson Over 13.5 rebounds assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
+103↓190%|+218
player rebounds assists
Amen Thompson Over 13.5 rebounds assists
🎯 Core Value Bet
+103↓190%|+218
player rebounds assists
57.70
Composite Score
+9.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
48.30
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, the expectation of a high-paced game with a point total of 228.5 suggests that both teams will have increased scoring opportunities, leading to more rebounds and assists. Amen Thompson's recent averages of 6.0 assists and 7.4 rebounds reinforce his potential to reach and exceed the 13.5 threshold, especially given the Jazz's defensive struggles. The Net EV of 0.10 indicates the market has undervalued this bet, aligning well with the high-scoring narrative and supporting a solid wager on Thompson's Over.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson is averaging 6.0 assists and 7.4 rebounds in his last 5 games, which totals 13.4 combined, very close to the 13.5 mark, showing he has the potential to exceed it.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing off against the Utah Jazz, a team that has struggled defensively, which allows for more opportunities for both rebounds and assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high point total of 228.5 and the spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, this suggests an expected high-paced game where Amen Thompson will likely be more involved in offensive plays, leading to more assists and rebounds.
- →TREND: In Amen Thompson’s last game against the Houston Rockets, he recorded 9 rebounds and had 4 assists, indicating he is capable of exceeding the threshold with similar performance.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are aiming to bounce back from a recent loss, motivating star players like Amen Thompson to perform at their peak and contribute significantly to the team's success, especially in a must-win environment.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: DataCred, ESPN, Team Analytics
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 40%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson's recent performance shows he has averaged 13.4 combined rebounds and assists over his last 5 games (8.2 rebounds + 3.8 assists = 12.0), indicating a weak trend toward reaching the 13.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing the Utah Jazz, who have allowed the 4th fewest assists per game this season, creating a challenging environment for Thompson to accumulate both assists and rebounds effectively.
- →NARRATIVE: With a 13.5 point spread favoring the Rockets, if they build a significant lead, Thompson may see reduced playing time in the fourth quarter, limiting his opportunities for stats accumulation.
- →TREND: Thompson has underperformed in terms of rebounds and assists, with his last 5 games showing no instances of exceeding 13.5 in the combined total; he has only reached a season-high of 12 in similar games this season.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Houston Rockets' strong playoff contention puts pressure on them to secure wins, likely resulting in maximizing their top players' minutes, which affects Thompson by eating up available rebounding and assist opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.basketball-reference.com, https://www.espn.com/nba/, https://www.nba.com/stats/
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 65%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson is averaging 6.0 assists and 7.4 rebounds in his last 5 games, which totals 13.4 combined, very close to the 13.5 mark, showing he has the potential to exceed it.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets are facing off against the Utah Jazz, a team that has struggled defensively, which allows for more opportunities for both rebounds and assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the high point total of 228.5 and the spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, this suggests an expected high-paced game where Amen Thompson will likely be more involved in offensive plays, leading to more assists and rebounds.
- →TREND: In Amen Thompson’s last game against the Houston Rockets, he recorded 9 rebounds and had 4 assists, indicating he is capable of exceeding the threshold with similar performance.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are aiming to bounce back from a recent loss, motivating star players like Amen Thompson to perform at their peak and contribute significantly to the team's success, especially in a must-win environment.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: DataCred, ESPN, Team Analytics
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