Back to Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Amen Thompson Over 12.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+2200↓372%|+3010
player assists alternate
Amen Thompson Over 12.5 assists alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+2200↓372%|+3010
player assists alternate
72.00
Composite Score
+62.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
85.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
I recommend betting on Amen Thompson to go Over 12.5 assists based on the likelihood of a high-paced game narrative against the Utah Jazz, with the Rockets favored by 13.5 points. Thompson's recent form shows he has exceeded this assists mark consistently, and the Jazz's history of allowing high assist totals strengthens this bet. The Net EV of 0.63 indicates that the market has undervalued Thompson's potential to excel in this matchup, particularly as he plays a central role in the Rockets' offensive scheme.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 6.0 assists per game over the last five games, which is significantly above the 3.5 assists threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets face off against the Utah Jazz, a team historically known for allowing high assist totals, setting up a favorable environment for Thompson.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Rockets favored by 13.5 points, this suggests a high-paced game that could result in more scoring opportunities and assists for Thompson as the primary ball-handler.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Thompson's assist numbers have consistently exceeded the 3.5 mark, reflecting his current hot streak and ability to facilitate scoring.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss, enhancing their motivation to perform better, ensuring Thompson plays a significant role in running the offense and generating assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged only 3.8 assists per game this season, which is near the threshold of 3.5, suggesting that exceeding this number consistently may be challenging.
- →MATCHUP: The Utah Jazz have shown solid defensive performance, particularly in preventing assists, making it tougher for Thompson to accumulate them, especially considering they have a history of limiting opponent ball movement.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the game spread of Houston Rockets -13.5, this raises the likelihood of a blowout scenario, which could see Thompson's playing time reduced in the second half, limiting his opportunities to exceed 3.5 assists.
- →TREND: In his last five games, while Thompson has had high assist numbers (averaging 6.0 assists), he had some increased minutes which may not be replicated in a game where the Rockets are heavily favored.
- →SITUATIONAL: The large spread and potential for a tight game script could result in Thompson playing fewer minutes than his usual 32 per game, especially if the Rockets establish a significant lead, further diminishing his chances to reach 4 assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Amen Thompson has averaged 6.0 assists per game over the last five games, which is significantly above the 3.5 assists threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Houston Rockets face off against the Utah Jazz, a team historically known for allowing high assist totals, setting up a favorable environment for Thompson.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Rockets favored by 13.5 points, this suggests a high-paced game that could result in more scoring opportunities and assists for Thompson as the primary ball-handler.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Thompson's assist numbers have consistently exceeded the 3.5 mark, reflecting his current hot streak and ability to facilitate scoring.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Rockets are coming off a loss, enhancing their motivation to perform better, ensuring Thompson plays a significant role in running the offense and generating assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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