Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Keldon Johnson Over 2.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+550↓300%|+825

player threes alternate

Keldon Johnson Over 2.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+550↓300%|+825

player threes alternate

74.70

Composite Score

+42.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

75.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This wager on Keldon Johnson to hit Over 2.5 threes aligns with an expected fast-paced game between the Spurs and Pistons, which typically generates higher scoring opportunities. Despite some recent inconsistency in shot volume, Johnson's 42.0% shooting from deep in his last five games indicates he's trending positively, and the competitive nature of this matchup should keep him on the court longer for more shot opportunities. The Net EV of 0.43 suggests the market undervalues this bet, making it a favorable lean given the outlined factors.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 74%

Evidence

→STATS: Keldon Johnson has made an average of 1.0 three-pointer per game over the last 5 games, which directly supports the potential for exceeding 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The high game total of 232.5 indicates a fast-paced matchup, allowing for more scoring opportunities, enhancing the likelihood of Johnson hitting more than 0.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams having strong records and a close spread of -1.5, this game is anticipated to be competitive, keeping starters like Johnson on the court longer, elevating his chances of making threes.
→TREND: Johnson's recent 3-point shooting percentage is at 42.0%, significantly higher than his season average of 31.8%, indicating an upswing in his shooting form leading into this game.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak, providing them with positive momentum and confidence, which can translate into more aggressive shooting from players like Johnson.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Keldon Johnson's 3PM/game average is 1.0, but his 3P% has been inconsistent, with a notable drop in recent games; this suggests he may not achieve even one three-pointer.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a strong perimeter defense, which has limited opposing players' three-point success rates, making it harder for Johnson to get open looks.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread being close and a high game total, game flow may lead to reduced shot opportunities for Johnson as teams focus on efficient scoring rather than perimeter shooting.
→TREND: In the last five games, Johnson's performance has waned with points per game dropping to 11.8 alongside a decline in shot volume, indicating trouble hitting his three-point mark.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak, meaning they may rely on other players for scoring while Johnson may receive limited minutes due to the team's current rhythm and rotation.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 74%

Evidence

→STATS: Keldon Johnson has made an average of 1.0 three-pointer per game over the last 5 games, which directly supports the potential for exceeding 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The high game total of 232.5 indicates a fast-paced matchup, allowing for more scoring opportunities, enhancing the likelihood of Johnson hitting more than 0.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams having strong records and a close spread of -1.5, this game is anticipated to be competitive, keeping starters like Johnson on the court longer, elevating his chances of making threes.
→TREND: Johnson's recent 3-point shooting percentage is at 42.0%, significantly higher than his season average of 31.8%, indicating an upswing in his shooting form leading into this game.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak, providing them with positive momentum and confidence, which can translate into more aggressive shooting from players like Johnson.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+2900+59.8% EV

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