Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons
Harrison Barnes Under 0.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+290↓162%|+760
player threes alternate
Harrison Barnes Under 0.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+290↓162%|+760
player threes alternate
69.20
Composite Score
+43.5%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
77.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
While the net EV of 0.44 suggests that the bet on Harrison Barnes going Under 0.5 three-pointers is slightly favorable, the opposing evidence from the anti-agent highlights that he has recently averaged 2.0 three-pointers and faces a Detroit Pistons team with weaker perimeter defense. Additionally, the high game total of 232.5 points indicates a fast-paced game, likely providing Barnes with more opportunities to shoot, which contradicts the expectation of hitting less than 0.5 threes. Therefore, taking this bet might not align with the dynamic nature of the matchup.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 75%
Evidence
- →STATS: In the last five games, Harrison Barnes is averaging only 2.0 three-pointers made per game, which is well below the 3.5 threshold he needs to exceed.
- →MATCHUP: The Spurs, currently ranked high in the standings, are known for their strong perimeter defense, limiting opponents' three-point shooting opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of this matchup between two high-ranking teams, both will likely focus on efficient scoring rather than relying heavily on three-point shooting, working against Barnes' chances of hitting 4 threes.
- →TREND: Barnes has struggled significantly with his three-point shooting recently, averaging just 30.3% from beyond the arc, which is far from the efficiency needed to exceed 3.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game total is high at 232.5, indicating a fast-paced game; however, Barnes' role and minutes have not increased, limiting his opportunities to achieve a higher three-point total.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Harrison Barnes has averaged 2.0 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, showing he has the ability to shoot from beyond the arc frequently.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a 3-point defense that ranks lower compared to other teams, which should provide Barnes with good opportunities to hit his shots.
- →NARRATIVE: The expected high total of 232.5 suggests a fast-paced game, creating more opportunities for Barnes to shoot three-pointers.
- →TREND: Despite a recent drop in three-point shooting percentage (30.3% in the last 5 games), Barnes has a track record of being a capable shooter, particularly in favorable matchups, which lends to potential increased shooting volume.
- →SITUATIONAL: No injuries reported for the Spurs means that Barnes will likely have a full complement of minutes available, allowing him to take more shots, especially from beyond the arc.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 75%
Evidence
- →STATS: In the last five games, Harrison Barnes is averaging only 2.0 three-pointers made per game, which is well below the 3.5 threshold he needs to exceed.
- →MATCHUP: The Spurs, currently ranked high in the standings, are known for their strong perimeter defense, limiting opponents' three-point shooting opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of this matchup between two high-ranking teams, both will likely focus on efficient scoring rather than relying heavily on three-point shooting, working against Barnes' chances of hitting 4 threes.
- →TREND: Barnes has struggled significantly with his three-point shooting recently, averaging just 30.3% from beyond the arc, which is far from the efficiency needed to exceed 3.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game total is high at 232.5, indicating a fast-paced game; however, Barnes' role and minutes have not increased, limiting his opportunities to achieve a higher three-point total.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available