Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Caris LeVert Over 3.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1300↓519%|+1610

player threes alternate

Caris LeVert Over 3.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1300↓519%|+1610

player threes alternate

62.20

Composite Score

+38.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

82.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Caris LeVert to make over 3.5 three-pointers makes sense given the expected high-scoring nature of the game between the Spurs and Pistons. With the Pistons ranked high in pace, there will be plenty of offensive opportunities, particularly for a player like LeVert, who could thrive on such chances despite recent struggles. The Net EV of 0.38 suggests that this bet is underpriced, providing favorable odds considering both the expected game dynamics and LeVert's track record of hitting a similar number of shots in competitive situations.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Caris LeVert has been averaging 0.6 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, surpassing the 0.5 mark and indicating a solid potential for him to hit at least one three-pointer.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons rank in the top tier for pace of play, which typically leads to more shot opportunities for all players, boosting LeVert's chances of hitting multiple three-pointers.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5 for the game, the expected fast-paced environment increases the potential for both teams to score, likely creating more open shots for LeVert.
→TREND: LeVert's shooting percentage from beyond the arc has notably fluctuated, but recent participation considering the Pistons' defensive lapses suggests he will be able to find rhythm during this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are on a 5-game winning streak, fostering a competitive atmosphere that encourages players like LeVert to step up and contribute in crucial moments, thus increasing his odds of exceeding 0.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Caris LeVert's recent 3-point percentage is significantly low at 18.0%, indicating he is struggling to convert from beyond the arc, making it unlikely that he will exceed 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are a strong defensive team, meaning they can effectively limit opposing shooters' opportunities, presenting an unfavorable matchup for LeVert.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected high-scoring game total of 232.5, there may be increased ball movement leading to more shots, yet LeVert's limited role could lead to less shooting opportunities overall.
→TREND: In his last five games, LeVert has only averaged 0.6 three-pointers made per game, showing that hitting more than 0.5 in this matchup doesn't align with his current performance trend.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a five-game winning streak, which could mean they prioritize defense and limit LeVert’s output as a secondary scorer, especially if they focus on shutting down key players.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: NBA Stats, ESPN API

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Caris LeVert has been averaging 0.6 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, surpassing the 0.5 mark and indicating a solid potential for him to hit at least one three-pointer.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons rank in the top tier for pace of play, which typically leads to more shot opportunities for all players, boosting LeVert's chances of hitting multiple three-pointers.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5 for the game, the expected fast-paced environment increases the potential for both teams to score, likely creating more open shots for LeVert.
→TREND: LeVert's shooting percentage from beyond the arc has notably fluctuated, but recent participation considering the Pistons' defensive lapses suggests he will be able to find rhythm during this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are on a 5-game winning streak, fostering a competitive atmosphere that encourages players like LeVert to step up and contribute in crucial moments, thus increasing his odds of exceeding 0.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+2900+59.8% EV

Tobias Harris Over 4.5 threes alternate💤

+2000+44.1% EV

Harrison Barnes Under 0.5 threes alternate💤

+290+43.5% EV

Caris LeVert Over 4.5 threes alternate💤

+2600+42.9% EV

Keldon Johnson Over 2.5 threes alternate💤

+550+42.6% EV