Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Caris LeVert Under 0.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+175— stable

player threes

Caris LeVert Under 0.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

+175— stable

player threes

42.10

Composite Score

+8.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

44.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation for Caris LeVert's performance doesn’t strongly align with either supporting or opposing evidence given the nuanced nature of the game. While there's a narrative that suggests limited opportunities due to the competitive matchup and strong opponent perimeter defense, the recent trend of averaging 0.6 three-pointers might indicate a possibility of him hitting this bet. However, with a Net EV of only 0.09 and balanced views on both sides, this doesn't provide enough value to recommend a wager at this time.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Caris LeVert's recent 3-point shooting percentage is only 18.0%, which indicates he is struggling to hit shots from beyond the arc, making it unlikely he will exceed 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their strong perimeter defense, which could further hinder LeVert's ability to find open shots and convert them into successful three-pointers.
→NARRATIVE: With a competitive game expected (Detroit is favored by only 1.5 points), close games often lead to reduced shot opportunities for players who are not primary ball handlers, which likely impacts LeVert's chances of hitting a three.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, LeVert has averaged only 0.6 3-pointers made per game, with a number of those games having shot volumes indicating lower opportunities, suggesting he may not reach 1 this time.
→SITUATIONAL: LeVert is currently averaging only 24.9 minutes per game, and if this game remains competitive, he may not see an increase in playing time, limiting his overall attempts and chances of exceeding 0.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Caris LeVert has averaged 0.6 three-pointers made per game over his last five games, showing he consistently hits more than 0.5, aligning well with this bet.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons' defensive statistics are not specifically listed, but given their high total game average of 232.5, it indicates a likely fast pace and scoring opportunities, which can benefit LeVert's chances of making threes.
→NARRATIVE: The expected game script indicates a competitive matchup, which can lead to extended minutes for LeVert, allowing him more chances to shoot beyond the arc.
→TREND: Despite the recent dip in his three-point shooting percentage (18.0%), the expectation that both teams will be actively shooting suggests a bounce-back opportunity in a high-scoring affair.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are on a five-game winning streak, and the close spread (Detroit Pistons -1.5) implies a competitive game, likely keeping starters in for more minutes, further facilitating shooting opportunities for LeVert.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Caris LeVert's recent 3-point shooting percentage is only 18.0%, which indicates he is struggling to hit shots from beyond the arc, making it unlikely he will exceed 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their strong perimeter defense, which could further hinder LeVert's ability to find open shots and convert them into successful three-pointers.
→NARRATIVE: With a competitive game expected (Detroit is favored by only 1.5 points), close games often lead to reduced shot opportunities for players who are not primary ball handlers, which likely impacts LeVert's chances of hitting a three.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, LeVert has averaged only 0.6 3-pointers made per game, with a number of those games having shot volumes indicating lower opportunities, suggesting he may not reach 1 this time.
→SITUATIONAL: LeVert is currently averaging only 24.9 minutes per game, and if this game remains competitive, he may not see an increase in playing time, limiting his overall attempts and chances of exceeding 0.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

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