Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Daniss Jenkins Under 0.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

+135— stable

player threes

Daniss Jenkins Under 0.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

+135— stable

player threes

51.20

Composite Score

+13.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

68.20

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In the matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, Daniss Jenkins is unlikely to exceed 0.5 three-pointers made, as evidenced by his weak 14.3% shooting percentage from three and an average of only 0.4 threes made per game over his last five games. The Spurs' superb defense against perimeter shots and Jenkins' limited playing time (averaging just 3.3 minutes per game this season) further support the expectation that he won't see enough opportunities to hit the over. The Net EV of 0.14 effectively reflects the agents’ confidence that this market is underpriced based on Jenkins' consistent underperformance and the competitive game context limiting his minutes.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Daniss Jenkins has a season 3-point shooting percentage of only 14.3%, and in his last 5 games, he averages just 0.4 three-pointers made per game, indicating he consistently struggles to exceed this threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs, known for their defensive prowess against perimeter shooting, could limit Jenkins' opportunities to attempt three-pointers, making it harder for him to hit the over on 0.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high-scoring expectation of 232.5 total points, while it suggests a fast-paced game, this may also lead to Jenkins being on the court less frequently if the starters dominate the game, which often results in reduced opportunities for bench players.
→TREND: In Jenkins' recent performances, he has not gone over 0.5 threes in most games, further exemplifying a trend of underperformance in this statistic.
→SITUATIONAL: With Jenkins averaging only 3.3 minutes per game for the season, the limited playing time severely restricts his chances to attempt three-pointers regardless of the game context or pace.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Daniss Jenkins has averaged 0.4 three-pointers made per game over the last 5 games, suggesting he has the potential to exceed the 0.5 mark given enough minutes and opportunities.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs' recent performance includes a high-scoring environment with a game total of 232.5, which typically enhances the chances for players to hit their three-point shots.
→NARRATIVE: As the game is expected to be closely contested (spread of -1.5), Jenkins is likely to receive more minutes in a competitive situation, increasing his chances to make at least one three-pointer.
→TREND: Jenkins' recent game against the Pistons saw him play 27 minutes and manage to make an impact, and he can continue this trend by leveraging the Pistons' defensive sets.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are currently on an 8-game winning streak, providing them with positive momentum; this can boost player confidence and result in higher overall shooting efficiency in crucial matchups.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 30%

Evidence

→STATS: Daniss Jenkins has a season 3-point shooting percentage of only 14.3%, and in his last 5 games, he averages just 0.4 three-pointers made per game, indicating he consistently struggles to exceed this threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs, known for their defensive prowess against perimeter shooting, could limit Jenkins' opportunities to attempt three-pointers, making it harder for him to hit the over on 0.5 threes.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high-scoring expectation of 232.5 total points, while it suggests a fast-paced game, this may also lead to Jenkins being on the court less frequently if the starters dominate the game, which often results in reduced opportunities for bench players.
→TREND: In Jenkins' recent performances, he has not gone over 0.5 threes in most games, further exemplifying a trend of underperformance in this statistic.
→SITUATIONAL: With Jenkins averaging only 3.3 minutes per game for the season, the limited playing time severely restricts his chances to attempt three-pointers regardless of the game context or pace.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

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