SAL 9000
SAL 9000
Betting research that reasons
Private Beta
HomeHow SAL WorksLegal
SAL 9000SAL 9000 - "I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't let you bet on the Jets."
ยฉ 2026 DCDC, LLC. All rights reserved.ยทLegal Disclaimer
Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Stephon Castle Under 0.5 threes

๐Ÿ’ค Noise Bet
+155โ€” stable
player threes

Stephon Castle Under 0.5 threes

๐Ÿ’ค Noise Bet
+155โ€” stable
player threes
44.00
Composite Score
+9.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
49.60
Market Divergence

๐Ÿงช SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, Stephon Castle's Under 0.5 three-pointers made bet presents a slight value based on the -EV assessment of 0.10. While Castle struggles with a recent form of only 15.8% from beyond the arc and faces a strong Spurs defense that contests perimeter shots effectively, there's also evidence suggesting that a high pace and competitive nature of the game could lead to more three-point attempts. This dichotomy creates uncertainty, making this wager a pass as the evidence is not definitive enough to confidently support the Under given the contrasting narrative of pace.

๐ŸŸข Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Stephon Castle's recent 3P percentage is only 15.8%, which underscores a significant struggle to consistently make three-point shots, making it unlikely he will exceed 0.5 threes.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive unit that can effectively contest perimeter shots, further challenging Castle's ability to successfully make three-pointers.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: Given the expected tight competition in this matchup, the game script likely favors a focus on inside scoring and facilitating rather than perimeter shooting, which may limit Castle's three-point attempts.
  • โ†’TREND: Over the last five games, Castle has averaged only 1.0 three-pointer made per game, but that includes games where he shot significantly better than his recent form, indicating a decreasing trend towards reaching this threshold.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: Castle's role may be further limited as both teams are in playoff contention, likely leading to a strategic game approach focused on defense and efficiency rather than reckless shooting from distance.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree

๐Ÿ”ด Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Stephon Castle has averaged 1.0 three-pointers made (3PM) over his last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 0.5 threshold.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs currently allow opponents to shoot 35.6% from beyond the arc, creating a favorable environment for perimeter shooters like Castle.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, a fast-paced game script is expected, which typically leads to more three-point attempts for all players involved.
  • โ†’TREND: Castle's recent increase to 15.8% 3P shooting in his last five games indicates a notable uptick in his shooting form, aligning with him being likely to make more than 0.5 threes.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: The matchup is critical as both teams are performing well, leading to potentially more competitive play and extended minutes for Castle, who averages 26.7 minutes, allowing more opportunity for three-point attempts.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2

๐ŸŸข Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Stephon Castle's recent 3P percentage is only 15.8%, which underscores a significant struggle to consistently make three-point shots, making it unlikely he will exceed 0.5 threes.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive unit that can effectively contest perimeter shots, further challenging Castle's ability to successfully make three-pointers.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: Given the expected tight competition in this matchup, the game script likely favors a focus on inside scoring and facilitating rather than perimeter shooting, which may limit Castle's three-point attempts.
  • โ†’TREND: Over the last five games, Castle has averaged only 1.0 three-pointer made per game, but that includes games where he shot significantly better than his recent form, indicating a decreasing trend towards reaching this threshold.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: Castle's role may be further limited as both teams are in playoff contention, likely leading to a strategic game approach focused on defense and efficiency rather than reckless shooting from distance.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree

Related Wagers

Daniss Jenkins Under 0.5 threes๐ŸŽฏ
+135+13.6% EV
Dylan Harper Under 0.5 threes๐ŸŽฏ
+120+9.1% EV
Caris LeVert Under 0.5 threes๐Ÿ’ค
+175+8.9% EV
Cade Cunningham Under 1.5 threes๐ŸŽฏ
+142+8.5% EV
Cade Cunningham Over 2.5 threes๐ŸŽฏ
+145+7.3% EV