Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Dylan Harper Under 0.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

+120— stable

player threes

Dylan Harper Under 0.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

+120— stable

player threes

42.50

Composite Score

+9.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

45.70

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Dylan Harper's Under 0.5 made threes is a solid bet given the likely game script favoring a low-scoring, defensive battle between the Spurs and Pistons. With Harper's recent performance averaging just 0.4 made threes and against a Spurs defense that excels in limiting perimeter shots, he is unlikely to exceed the threshold. The Net EV of 0.09 supports this bet as the evidence reveals strong underpinnings for a defensive focus and limited shooting opportunities in a tightly contested matchup.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper averages just 0.4 three-pointers made per game over the last five games, which is well below the threshold of 0.5.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are a top-tier defensive team, which will make it more difficult for Harper to find open shots for three-pointers.
→NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of this matchup, with both teams performing well, there is likely a focus on ball control and fewer opportunities for individual scoring, especially from three-point range.
→TREND: Harper's 3-point shooting percentage is a low 16.7%, indicating significant inefficiency and making it unlikely for him to exceed even a single three-pointer in this game.
→SITUATIONAL: With the game being tightly contested as reflected by the spread of -1.5, the potential for minutes to be limited if the game turns into a defensive struggle also undermines Harper's chances of hitting the over.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper has averaged 0.4 three-pointers made per game over the last five games but has consistently taken around 10 field goal attempts per game, indicating he is actively looking to score from distance.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons, while a strong team, have a defensive efficiency ranking that allows for decent perimeter shooting opportunities. The small spread suggests a competitive game, which usually keeps starters on the floor longer and offers Harper more chances to shoot threes.
→NARRATIVE: With the high game total of 232.5, the expected pace of the game will likely result in more possessions, leading to more shooting opportunities for Harper to exceed 0.5 made threes.
→TREND: Although Harper has struggled with a 3P percentage of just 16.7% over the last five games, he has shown potential in previous matchups against the Spurs, where he recorded 1 three-pointer in earlier meetings, hinting at a bounce back.
→SITUATIONAL: The close nature of the spread (Detroit Pistons -1.5) indicates a competitive game, which generally allows for more minutes for crucial players like Harper, increasing the likelihood of him exceeding 0.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper averages just 0.4 three-pointers made per game over the last five games, which is well below the threshold of 0.5.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are a top-tier defensive team, which will make it more difficult for Harper to find open shots for three-pointers.
→NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of this matchup, with both teams performing well, there is likely a focus on ball control and fewer opportunities for individual scoring, especially from three-point range.
→TREND: Harper's 3-point shooting percentage is a low 16.7%, indicating significant inefficiency and making it unlikely for him to exceed even a single three-pointer in this game.
→SITUATIONAL: With the game being tightly contested as reflected by the spread of -1.5, the potential for minutes to be limited if the game turns into a defensive struggle also undermines Harper's chances of hitting the over.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Related Wagers

Daniss Jenkins Under 0.5 threes🎯

+135+13.6% EV

Stephon Castle Under 0.5 threes💤

+155+9.9% EV

Caris LeVert Under 0.5 threes💤

+175+8.9% EV

Cade Cunningham Under 1.5 threes🎯

+142+8.5% EV

Cade Cunningham Over 2.5 threes🎯

+145+7.3% EV