Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Cade Cunningham Over 2.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

+145— stable

player threes

Cade Cunningham Over 2.5 threes

🎯 Core Value Bet

+145— stable

player threes

39.10

Composite Score

+7.3%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

36.70

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expected high-scoring game between the Spurs and Pistons, with a total set at 232.5, creates a favorable environment for Cade Cunningham to excel from beyond the arc. While strong defense from the Spurs could limit opportunities, Cunningham's recent form, averaging 2.8 threes with a shooting percentage of 39.8%, suggests he has a good chance of exceeding 2.5 made threes. The Net EV of 0.07 indicates that this bet is slightly underpriced in the market.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Cade Cunningham is averaging 2.8 three-pointers made per game over his last 5 games, which is above the 2.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are facing the San Antonio Spurs, who allow a high number of three-point attempts, making it a favorable environment for Cunningham to hit his threes.
→NARRATIVE: With a game total set at 232.5, the expected high-scoring nature of the game suggests that all offensive players, including Cunningham, will have increased opportunities to score from beyond the arc.
→TREND: Cunningham has been shooting an impressive 39.8% from three-point range in his last five games, indicating he’s in good form to exceed the 2.5 mark.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons, currently on a 5-game winning streak, will likely rely heavily on their stars, including Cunningham, to maintain momentum against a strong Spurs team.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Cade Cunningham's recent performance shows he averages 2.8 three-pointers made per game, but his consistency indicates variations that could lead to games under 2.5.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defense, which can limit Cunningham's shooting opportunities and disrupt his rhythm, particularly from beyond the arc.
→NARRATIVE: With a close spread of 1.5 points and the total set at 232.5, both teams are likely to play tight defense, which could limit higher volume shooters like Cunningham.
→TREND: In his last five games, while he has made 2.8 threes on average, previous performances against strong defensive teams indicate he has struggled to reach the threshold of 3 threes on multiple occasions.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the current high-stakes rivalry and playoff positioning, the Pistons may focus on creating balanced scoring rather than relying heavily on three-pointers from Cunningham.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Cade Cunningham is averaging 2.8 three-pointers made per game over his last 5 games, which is above the 2.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are facing the San Antonio Spurs, who allow a high number of three-point attempts, making it a favorable environment for Cunningham to hit his threes.
→NARRATIVE: With a game total set at 232.5, the expected high-scoring nature of the game suggests that all offensive players, including Cunningham, will have increased opportunities to score from beyond the arc.
→TREND: Cunningham has been shooting an impressive 39.8% from three-point range in his last five games, indicating he’s in good form to exceed the 2.5 mark.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons, currently on a 5-game winning streak, will likely rely heavily on their stars, including Cunningham, to maintain momentum against a strong Spurs team.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com

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