Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Stephon Castle Over 1.5 steals alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+194↓178%|+444

player steals alternate

Stephon Castle Over 1.5 steals alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+194↓178%|+444

player steals alternate

67.50

Composite Score

+44.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

80.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation of a high-scoring game with a total of 232.5 aligns well with betting Castle Over 1.5 steals, as both teams will have increased possessions and opportunities for defensive stats. Castle's average of 0.9 steals per game, combined with the Pistons' high turnover rate, creates a favorable environment for him to exceed this line. The Net EV of 0.45 indicates that the market may have mispriced this bet, suggesting there's a decent chance for profitability in the current context.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Stephon Castle has averaged 0.9 steals per game this season, showing that he consistently performs above the 0.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are ranked 24th in turnovers per game, providing Castle ample opportunities to capitalize on defensive lapses and grab steals.
→NARRATIVE: In a high-scoring game expected with a total of 232.5, there will be plenty of possessions, increasing the likelihood of defensive stat accumulation, including steals.
→TREND: Over the last five games, Castle has recorded 1.0 steal in three of those contests, indicating he is in good form defensively, and is becoming more involved defensively in the pace of the game.
→SITUATIONAL: With both teams fighting for playoff positioning (Detroit at #1 seed and San Antonio at #2), we can expect high intensity, leading to more aggressive defense and increased chances of steals.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 0%

Evidence

→STATS: Stephon Castle has averaged only 0.9 steals per game for the season and has consistently recorded low output in steals in recent matchups, with multiple games against the Spurs yielding zeros.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their efficient ball movement and low turnover rate, making it harder for Castle to capitalize on defensive opportunities to secure steals.
→NARRATIVE: Given that both teams are performing well and the game total is set high at 232.5, the fast pace might favor scoring rather than defensive actions like steals.
→TREND: In his last five games, Castle has recorded zero steals in two out of the five matches, showing a recent trend of underperformance in this metric.
→SITUATIONAL: The small spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5 indicates a likely close game, which means starters may play fewer minutes if the game leads to a comfortable win for either team, limiting Castle's opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Stephon Castle has averaged 0.9 steals per game this season, showing that he consistently performs above the 0.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are ranked 24th in turnovers per game, providing Castle ample opportunities to capitalize on defensive lapses and grab steals.
→NARRATIVE: In a high-scoring game expected with a total of 232.5, there will be plenty of possessions, increasing the likelihood of defensive stat accumulation, including steals.
→TREND: Over the last five games, Castle has recorded 1.0 steal in three of those contests, indicating he is in good form defensively, and is becoming more involved defensively in the pace of the game.
→SITUATIONAL: With both teams fighting for playoff positioning (Detroit at #1 seed and San Antonio at #2), we can expect high intensity, leading to more aggressive defense and increased chances of steals.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+900+58.1% EV

Stephon Castle Over 1.5 steals alternate💤

+167+42.0% EV

Stephon Castle Over 12.5 assists alternate💤

+2600+40.5% EV

Stephon Castle Over 9.5 assists alternate🚀

+600+35.2% EV

Jalen Duren Over 2.5 steals alternate💤

+820+34.9% EV