Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Victor Wembanyama Over 0.5 steals

🧠 Conviction Bet

-210— stable

player steals

Victor Wembanyama Over 0.5 steals

🧠 Conviction Bet

-210— stable

player steals

60.30

Composite Score

+17.2%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

75.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Victor Wembanyama to get Over 0.5 steals makes sense given the matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who struggle with ball security. The high game total of 232.5 indicates a fast-paced game that should create ample opportunities for steals, aligning with Wembanyama's defensive capabilities and past performance. The Net EV of 0.17 suggests the market is undervaluing this bet due to a favorable game context and Wembanyama's potential for impact on both ends of the floor.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama has averaged 1.1 steals per game this season, and in his last five games, he recorded steals in 3 of those games, showing a consistent ability to reach this threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are facing the Detroit Pistons, who rank lower in ball security, which creates additional opportunities for steals. Given Wembanyama's defensive capabilities, he is well-positioned to capitalize.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, it is expected to be a fast-paced game, leading to more possessions and opportunities for Wembanyama to get steals as players are more likely to turn the ball over in a high-pressure, fast-paced scenario.
→TREND: Over the last five games, Wembanyama has recorded multiple steals, including 2 steals against the San Antonio Spurs in a recent match, demonstrating his potential to exceed this mark in favorable matchups.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks, adding intensity to the game. A close contest will likely result in Wembanyama playing extended minutes (averaging 33.2 mins/game this season), increasing his chances of accumulating steals.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 0%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama has averaged only 0.8 steals across his last five games, and in two of those games, he recorded zero steals, indicating inconsistency in hitting the mark.
→MATCHUP: Wembanyama is facing a Detroit Pistons team that currently ranks among the highest in offensive efficiency, which can lead to fewer steal opportunities for defenders.
→NARRATIVE: The high total of 232.5 suggests a fast-paced game, which often results in more scoring and less emphasis on defensive plays, further reducing Wembanyama's chances for steals.
→TREND: In his last five games, Wembanyama has only managed to collect a steal in three instances, showcasing a trend of underperformance in this category.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Spurs on an 8-game winning streak, they may focus more on maintaining their offensive rhythm rather than pressing defensively, which can limit Wembanyama's ability to accrue steals.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama has averaged 1.1 steals per game this season, and in his last five games, he recorded steals in 3 of those games, showing a consistent ability to reach this threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are facing the Detroit Pistons, who rank lower in ball security, which creates additional opportunities for steals. Given Wembanyama's defensive capabilities, he is well-positioned to capitalize.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, it is expected to be a fast-paced game, leading to more possessions and opportunities for Wembanyama to get steals as players are more likely to turn the ball over in a high-pressure, fast-paced scenario.
→TREND: Over the last five games, Wembanyama has recorded multiple steals, including 2 steals against the San Antonio Spurs in a recent match, demonstrating his potential to exceed this mark in favorable matchups.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks, adding intensity to the game. A close contest will likely result in Wembanyama playing extended minutes (averaging 33.2 mins/game this season), increasing his chances of accumulating steals.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

Related Wagers

Cade Cunningham Under 0.5 steals💤

+183+9.7% EV

Stephon Castle Over 1.5 steals💤

+194+5.5% EV

Ausar Thompson Under 1.5 steals💤

-122+0.5% EV

Ausar Thompson Under 1.5 steals💤

-125+0.1% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 assists💤

-140-0.2% EV