Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

-140— stable

player assists

Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

-140— stable

player assists

25.20

Composite Score

-0.2%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

1.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, both agents provide strong narratives, but ultimately the evidence presents a balanced outlook. Wembanyama's recent assist production does not show strong consistency, averaging only 2.0 assists in his last five games, which blunts expectation. Given the Net EV of -0.00, the market pricing aligns closely with the analysis presented, indicating this bet isn't a favorable opportunity at this time.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Wembanyama is averaging 3.7 assists per game this season, which is well above the threshold of 2.5 assists.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a high-scoring potential with a total of 232.5, suggesting more possessions and opportunities for Wembanyama to facilitate plays.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the game is expected to be competitive with a spread of only 1.5 points, Wembanyama is likely to play heavy minutes, increasing his chances of exceeding 2.5 assists.
→TREND: In his last five games, Wembanyama recorded 2.0 assists per game; however, in high-pressure situations, he has shown an ability to elevate his play, particularly against strong opponents.
→SITUATIONAL: The San Antonio Spurs are on an 8-game win streak, providing positive momentum, which can lead to increased offensive flow, giving Wembanyama more chances to distribute the ball effectively.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data1, data2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 60%

Evidence

→STATS: Wembanyama is averaging only 2.0 assists per game over his last five games, which is below the threshold of 2.5 assists and indicates a struggle to distribute effectively.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons feature a strong defensive unit rated high in limiting assists, making it difficult for opposing players like Wembanyama to achieve significant assist numbers.
→NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be tightly contested (spread of -1.5), it's likely that Wembanyama's focus will shift more towards scoring and rebounding, rather than playmaking.
→TREND: Wembanyama's assist totals have been declining; he hasn't exceeded 2 assists in three of his last five games, indicating a trend of underperformance in this category.
→SITUATIONAL: Although the Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak, that may lead to complacency, reducing the urgency for Wembanyama to increase his assist count in a relatively crucial matchup.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: authoritative_player_stats, authoritative_team_data

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Wembanyama is averaging 3.7 assists per game this season, which is well above the threshold of 2.5 assists.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a high-scoring potential with a total of 232.5, suggesting more possessions and opportunities for Wembanyama to facilitate plays.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the game is expected to be competitive with a spread of only 1.5 points, Wembanyama is likely to play heavy minutes, increasing his chances of exceeding 2.5 assists.
→TREND: In his last five games, Wembanyama recorded 2.0 assists per game; however, in high-pressure situations, he has shown an ability to elevate his play, particularly against strong opponents.
→SITUATIONAL: The San Antonio Spurs are on an 8-game win streak, providing positive momentum, which can lead to increased offensive flow, giving Wembanyama more chances to distribute the ball effectively.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data1, data2

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