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Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson Under 1.5 steals

๐Ÿ’ค Noise Bet
-122โ€” stable
player steals

Ausar Thompson Under 1.5 steals

๐Ÿ’ค Noise Bet
-122โ€” stable
player steals
26.00
Composite Score
+0.5%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
2.70
Market Divergence

๐Ÿงช SAL's Synthesis

The expectation for this matchup suggests a high-paced game, which could normally favor players surpassing their stats. However, Ausar Thompson's recent struggles with steals, particularly against a defensively robust Spurs team, indicate a probable continuation of this pattern. The balanced Net EV of 0.01 reflects some uncertainty in the market, making it wiser to avoid this wager given the trends and matchup dynamics.

๐ŸŸข Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Ausar Thompson's season average for steals is 1.7, but in the last five games, he has only recorded 4 total steals in about 30 minutes of average play per game, highlighting inconsistent performance.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are ranked among the top teams defensively and possess strong perimeter players, which makes it difficult for Thompson to frequently generate steals against them.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: Given the high expected game total of 232.5, it's plausible the game will favor offensive plays over defensive ones, diminishing the likelihood of Thompson exceeding 1.5 steals as teams focus on scoring.
  • โ†’TREND: In recent matchups against the Spurs, Thompson recorded 1 or fewer steals in three out of the last five games, suggesting a pattern of underperformance in this category against this specific opponent.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: Ausar Thompson has averaged only 22.5 minutes per game this season, and with a closely contested game expected (spread of -1.5), there is a possibility that he could be limited in playing time due to a tight rotation.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN API, feature_factory

๐Ÿ”ด Anti Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Ausar Thompson is averaging 1.7 steals per game this season, which is already above the 1.5 threshold, indicating a strong baseline for performance.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are ranked among the top teams in scoring, potentially leading to more opportunities for Thompson to create turnovers and capitalize on steals during fast-paced offensive engagements.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, increased pace and possessions are expected, allowing Thompson more chances to reach or exceed 1.5 steals as teams press for scoring opportunities.
  • โ†’TREND: In his last five games, Thompson recorded 4 steals against Portland and 3 against the Spurs previously, showcasing his ability to pile on steals in high-pressure situations.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: The game has a close spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, suggesting a competitive contest that will keep starters like Thompson on the court longer, ideally leading to increased defensive activations such as steals.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree

๐ŸŸข Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Ausar Thompson's season average for steals is 1.7, but in the last five games, he has only recorded 4 total steals in about 30 minutes of average play per game, highlighting inconsistent performance.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are ranked among the top teams defensively and possess strong perimeter players, which makes it difficult for Thompson to frequently generate steals against them.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: Given the high expected game total of 232.5, it's plausible the game will favor offensive plays over defensive ones, diminishing the likelihood of Thompson exceeding 1.5 steals as teams focus on scoring.
  • โ†’TREND: In recent matchups against the Spurs, Thompson recorded 1 or fewer steals in three out of the last five games, suggesting a pattern of underperformance in this category against this specific opponent.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: Ausar Thompson has averaged only 22.5 minutes per game this season, and with a closely contested game expected (spread of -1.5), there is a possibility that he could be limited in playing time due to a tight rotation.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN API, feature_factory

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