Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson Under 1.5 steals

💤 Noise Bet

-125↑10%|-11

player steals

Ausar Thompson Under 1.5 steals

💤 Noise Bet

-125↑10%|-11

player steals

25.20

Composite Score

+0.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

0.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The game script suggests a high-scoring affair with a total of 232.5, potentially favoring offense over defense, which would typically lean towards a higher number of steals. However, Ausar Thompson's recent performance dips, averaging only about 22.5 minutes per game and having fewer than 1.5 steals in three of his last five matchups against the Spurs, raises concerns. Despite the positive EV calculation being neutral at 0.00, the conflicting evidence regarding Thompson's steals performance against a strong Spurs team supports passing on this bet as it lacks a compelling edge given the expected game dynamics.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson's season average for steals is 1.7, but in the last five games, he has only recorded 4 total steals in about 30 minutes of average play per game, highlighting inconsistent performance.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are ranked among the top teams defensively and possess strong perimeter players, which makes it difficult for Thompson to frequently generate steals against them.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high expected game total of 232.5, it's plausible the game will favor offensive plays over defensive ones, diminishing the likelihood of Thompson exceeding 1.5 steals as teams focus on scoring.
→TREND: In recent matchups against the Spurs, Thompson recorded 1 or fewer steals in three out of the last five games, suggesting a pattern of underperformance in this category against this specific opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: Ausar Thompson has averaged only 22.5 minutes per game this season, and with a closely contested game expected (spread of -1.5), there is a possibility that he could be limited in playing time due to a tight rotation.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN API, feature_factory

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson is averaging 1.7 steals per game this season, which is already above the 1.5 threshold, indicating a strong baseline for performance.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are ranked among the top teams in scoring, potentially leading to more opportunities for Thompson to create turnovers and capitalize on steals during fast-paced offensive engagements.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, increased pace and possessions are expected, allowing Thompson more chances to reach or exceed 1.5 steals as teams press for scoring opportunities.
→TREND: In his last five games, Thompson recorded 4 steals against Portland and 3 against the Spurs previously, showcasing his ability to pile on steals in high-pressure situations.
→SITUATIONAL: The game has a close spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, suggesting a competitive contest that will keep starters like Thompson on the court longer, ideally leading to increased defensive activations such as steals.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson's season average for steals is 1.7, but in the last five games, he has only recorded 4 total steals in about 30 minutes of average play per game, highlighting inconsistent performance.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are ranked among the top teams defensively and possess strong perimeter players, which makes it difficult for Thompson to frequently generate steals against them.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high expected game total of 232.5, it's plausible the game will favor offensive plays over defensive ones, diminishing the likelihood of Thompson exceeding 1.5 steals as teams focus on scoring.
→TREND: In recent matchups against the Spurs, Thompson recorded 1 or fewer steals in three out of the last five games, suggesting a pattern of underperformance in this category against this specific opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: Ausar Thompson has averaged only 22.5 minutes per game this season, and with a closely contested game expected (spread of -1.5), there is a possibility that he could be limited in playing time due to a tight rotation.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN API, feature_factory

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