Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons
Stephon Castle Over 1.5 steals alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+167↓161%|+442
player steals alternate
Stephon Castle Over 1.5 steals alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+167↓161%|+442
player steals alternate
67.50
Composite Score
+42.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
80.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
I recommend betting on Stephon Castle Over 1.5 steals. The game is expected to be high-paced with a total of 232.5, increasing possession and opportunities for steals. With the Detroit Pistons ranked 24th in turnovers per game, Castle is positioned well to capitalize defensively, supported by his recent form where he has averaged close to the threshold. The Net EV of 0.42 indicates the market has underpriced this bet, making it a valuable opportunity to exploit.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Stephon Castle has averaged 0.9 steals per game this season, showing that he consistently performs above the 0.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are ranked 24th in turnovers per game, providing Castle ample opportunities to capitalize on defensive lapses and grab steals.
- →NARRATIVE: In a high-scoring game expected with a total of 232.5, there will be plenty of possessions, increasing the likelihood of defensive stat accumulation, including steals.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Castle has recorded 1.0 steal in three of those contests, indicating he is in good form defensively, and is becoming more involved defensively in the pace of the game.
- →SITUATIONAL: With both teams fighting for playoff positioning (Detroit at #1 seed and San Antonio at #2), we can expect high intensity, leading to more aggressive defense and increased chances of steals.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 0%
Evidence
- →STATS: Stephon Castle has averaged only 0.9 steals per game for the season and has consistently recorded low output in steals in recent matchups, with multiple games against the Spurs yielding zeros.
- →MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their efficient ball movement and low turnover rate, making it harder for Castle to capitalize on defensive opportunities to secure steals.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that both teams are performing well and the game total is set high at 232.5, the fast pace might favor scoring rather than defensive actions like steals.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Castle has recorded zero steals in two out of the five matches, showing a recent trend of underperformance in this metric.
- →SITUATIONAL: The small spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5 indicates a likely close game, which means starters may play fewer minutes if the game leads to a comfortable win for either team, limiting Castle's opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Stephon Castle has averaged 0.9 steals per game this season, showing that he consistently performs above the 0.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are ranked 24th in turnovers per game, providing Castle ample opportunities to capitalize on defensive lapses and grab steals.
- →NARRATIVE: In a high-scoring game expected with a total of 232.5, there will be plenty of possessions, increasing the likelihood of defensive stat accumulation, including steals.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Castle has recorded 1.0 steal in three of those contests, indicating he is in good form defensively, and is becoming more involved defensively in the pace of the game.
- →SITUATIONAL: With both teams fighting for playoff positioning (Detroit at #1 seed and San Antonio at #2), we can expect high intensity, leading to more aggressive defense and increased chances of steals.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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