Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Jalen Duren Over 2.5 steals alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+820↓521%|+1015

player steals alternate

Jalen Duren Over 2.5 steals alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+820↓521%|+1015

player steals alternate

62.20

Composite Score

+34.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

82.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This wager on Jalen Duren to get over 2.5 steals aligns well with the expected fast-paced game narrative between the Spurs and Pistons. With San Antonio's style leading to more possessions and potential turnovers, Duren has a solid chance to exceed his average steals due to increased opportunities. The Net EV of 0.35 indicates that the market has undervalued this bet, suggesting favorable conditions for Duren to capitalize in this match-up.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren averages 0.7 steals per game this season, positioning him well above the 0.5 steals threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their fast-paced play, which leads to more possessions and opportunities for defensive stats, helping Duren capitalize on more chances to record steals.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected high-scoring game total of 232.5, a fast-paced match creates increased chances for both teams to engage in defense and opportunistic steals.
→TREND: In his last five games, Duren recorded multiple steals in two games (2 steals each), highlighting his capability to achieve more than 0.5 steals when given the chance.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons have won 5 games in a row, and with a small spread of -1.5, it's likely the game remains competitive, which would keep Duren's minutes elevated, allowing him to potentially exceed the steals threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren has averaged only 0.7 steals per game for the season, which suggests that exceeding 0.5 steals consistently is unlikely given he typically hovers around this number.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs excel in ball movement and are currently on an 8-game winning streak, which may reduce the opportunity for Duren to create steals as they are adept at limiting turnovers.
→NARRATIVE: With the projected total of 232.5, the game is expected to be high-paced, leaving less time for Duren to effectively disrupt ball handlers and generate steals given the overall rhythm of the game favors offense over defense.
→TREND: In his last five games, Duren has recorded 0 steals in two of those matchups against Detroit, which indicates a trend of underperformance in generating steals even when given adequate minutes.
→SITUATIONAL: As the Pistons sit atop the league standings and face the Spurs, there is a risk that if the game becomes lopsided, Duren's minutes could be limited, further reducing his chances to collect steals.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren averages 0.7 steals per game this season, positioning him well above the 0.5 steals threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their fast-paced play, which leads to more possessions and opportunities for defensive stats, helping Duren capitalize on more chances to record steals.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected high-scoring game total of 232.5, a fast-paced match creates increased chances for both teams to engage in defense and opportunistic steals.
→TREND: In his last five games, Duren recorded multiple steals in two games (2 steals each), highlighting his capability to achieve more than 0.5 steals when given the chance.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons have won 5 games in a row, and with a small spread of -1.5, it's likely the game remains competitive, which would keep Duren's minutes elevated, allowing him to potentially exceed the steals threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+490+62.7% EV

Stephon Castle Over 1.5 steals alternate💤

+194+44.8% EV

Stephon Castle Over 1.5 steals alternate💤

+167+42.0% EV

Jalen Duren Over 16.5 rebounds alternate💤

+875+35.9% EV

Jalen Duren Over 17.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1440+33.5% EV