Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Stephon Castle Over 9.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+600↓500%|+750

player assists alternate

Stephon Castle Over 9.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+600↓500%|+750

player assists alternate

62.20

Composite Score

+35.2%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

82.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In a high-scoring matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, Stephon Castle is positioned to exceed his assist total with both the game's projected pace and the offensive capabilities of the Pistons working in his favor. The Net EV of 0.35 suggests the market has undervalued his potential, especially as Castle averages 6.4 assists recently and the game's tight spread indicates he will likely play significant minutes. The overall narrative supports a competitive and offensive game, enhancing his chances of hitting Over 9.5 assists.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 87%

Evidence

→STATS: Stephon Castle has averaged 6.4 assists per game over his last 5 games, far exceeding the 3.5 assists threshold, indicating his capability to produce assists in this matchup.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons' high offensive output this season, along with their 232.5 total in this game, suggests ample opportunities for assists, benefitting Castle as he plays against a defense that allows favorable matchups for guards.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's expected high-scoring affair, a close competition with a small spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5 means Castle will likely play significant minutes, increasing his chances of exceeding 3.5 assists.
→TREND: Over the past five games, Castle's performance shows a trend of increasing assist production, correlating with his consistent role and high usage as he shares minutes in competitive matchups, indicating a likelihood he sustains his high assist totals.
→SITUATIONAL: Both the Spurs and Pistons are playoff contenders with strong records and winning streaks, which often leads to competitive and tightly contested games, ensuring Castle will have the opportunity to contribute significantly to his team's offense.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Despite an average of 6.4 assists in the last 5 games, Castle's overall assists per game is only 4.1, indicating inconsistency in hitting higher assist totals.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive unit, which could limit Castle's ability to create assists, especially given their recent performance on that end of the court.
→NARRATIVE: With a projected total of 232.5, the game may be faster paced, but higher scoring games can sometimes mean less focus on playmaking and more on shot creation, which could work against Castle's assist totals.
→TREND: Castle has shown variability in his assist stats, as seen in past performances; in the last five matchups against the Spurs, he has struggled to consistently accumulate assists, hitting below 3.5 in several instances.
→SITUATIONAL: Factors such as being away from home and potential fatigue from a recent tough schedule against high-caliber teams like the Spurs may negatively impact Castle’s performance, specifically his ability to facilitate effectively.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 87%

Evidence

→STATS: Stephon Castle has averaged 6.4 assists per game over his last 5 games, far exceeding the 3.5 assists threshold, indicating his capability to produce assists in this matchup.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons' high offensive output this season, along with their 232.5 total in this game, suggests ample opportunities for assists, benefitting Castle as he plays against a defense that allows favorable matchups for guards.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's expected high-scoring affair, a close competition with a small spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5 means Castle will likely play significant minutes, increasing his chances of exceeding 3.5 assists.
→TREND: Over the past five games, Castle's performance shows a trend of increasing assist production, correlating with his consistent role and high usage as he shares minutes in competitive matchups, indicating a likelihood he sustains his high assist totals.
→SITUATIONAL: Both the Spurs and Pistons are playoff contenders with strong records and winning streaks, which often leads to competitive and tightly contested games, ensuring Castle will have the opportunity to contribute significantly to his team's offense.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+600+68.6% EV

De'Aaron Fox Over 12.5 assists alternate💤

+2400+66.9% EV

Stephon Castle Over 8.5 rebounds alternate💤

+900+58.1% EV

Stephon Castle Over 1.5 steals alternate💤

+194+44.8% EV

Cade Cunningham Over 17.5 assists alternate💤

+2600+44.0% EV