Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Victor Wembanyama Over 4.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+360↓325%|+520

player assists alternate

Victor Wembanyama Over 4.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+360↓325%|+520

player assists alternate

56.80

Composite Score

+18.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

80.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The bet on Victor Wembanyama Over 4.5 assists makes sense given the expected competitive nature of the matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who play at a fast pace that should increase assist opportunities. Despite recent trends showing lower assist averages, the Spurs' winning momentum and emphasis on ball movement suggest Wembanyama will have more chances to distribute the ball, making this line underpriced. The positive Net EV of 0.19 reinforces the expectation that the bookmaker may have misvalued this bet.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama has averaged 3.7 assists per game this season, which is above the 2.5 assists threshold. Even in his last 5 games, his assists average is 2.0, showcasing a solid baseline performance.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs face the Detroit Pistons, a team that plays at a relatively fast pace, which can contribute to increased possessions and assist opportunities for Wembanyama.
→NARRATIVE: Given the small spread of 1.5 points, we can expect a highly competitive and closely contested game. In close contests, Wembanyama is likely to play extended minutes, providing more opportunities to increase his assist tally.
→TREND: Wembanyama's recent form shows an upward trajectory, with his scoring increasing to an average of 24.8 points per game in the last 5 games, indicating a heightened level of engagement on the offensive end, which often correlates with higher assists.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak, reflecting a high level of confidence and cohesion within the team. This winning momentum can lead to better ball movement and increased assists across the roster, benefiting Wembanyama.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama's recent averages show him only achieving 2.0 assists per game over the last five games, indicating he has not been consistently hitting 3 assists in this stretch.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons boast a strong defensive lineup that can limit guards and forwards in terms of playmaking opportunities, which may hinder Wembanyama's ability to assist.
→NARRATIVE: Given the spread of just -1.5 for the Pistons, the game is expected to be close, potentially limiting possession time and distribution opportunities for Wembanyama as both teams will be competitive.
→TREND: Wembanyama has not exceeded 2.5 assists in his last five games, which suggests a trend of underperformance in this category relative to this threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an eight-game winning streak, likely emphasizing their go-to scoring options rather than playmaking, further diminishing Wembanyama's chances of hitting over 2.5 assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama has averaged 3.7 assists per game this season, which is above the 2.5 assists threshold. Even in his last 5 games, his assists average is 2.0, showcasing a solid baseline performance.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs face the Detroit Pistons, a team that plays at a relatively fast pace, which can contribute to increased possessions and assist opportunities for Wembanyama.
→NARRATIVE: Given the small spread of 1.5 points, we can expect a highly competitive and closely contested game. In close contests, Wembanyama is likely to play extended minutes, providing more opportunities to increase his assist tally.
→TREND: Wembanyama's recent form shows an upward trajectory, with his scoring increasing to an average of 24.8 points per game in the last 5 games, indicating a heightened level of engagement on the offensive end, which often correlates with higher assists.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak, reflecting a high level of confidence and cohesion within the team. This winning momentum can lead to better ball movement and increased assists across the roster, benefiting Wembanyama.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+1340+69.1% EV

Cade Cunningham Over 13.5 assists alternate🚀

+600+68.6% EV

De'Aaron Fox Over 12.5 assists alternate💤

+2400+66.9% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+390+47.7% EV

Cade Cunningham Over 17.5 assists alternate💤

+2600+44.0% EV