Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Victor Wembanyama Over 17.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1340↓898%|+1508

player rebounds alternate

Victor Wembanyama Over 17.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1340↓898%|+1508

player rebounds alternate

66.00

Composite Score

+69.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, I expect a high-paced game given the total of 232.5, which should create more rebounding opportunities for Victor Wembanyama. With the Pistons allowing a high average of rebounds and Wembanyama's recent strong performances against them, the likelihood of him surpassing 17.5 rebounds increases. The Net EV of 0.69 reflects this expectation as it indicates that the bet is underpriced by the bookmaker, aligning well with the game's projected narrative and Wembanyama's potential performance.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama has averaged 10.4 rebounds over his last 5 games, exceeding the 9.5 rebound threshold comfortably and demonstrating his capability in this statistic.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are facing the Detroit Pistons, who provide a solid rebounding opportunity, allowing their opponents to secure an average of 47.2 rebounds per game, which can enhance Wembanyama's chances to exceed his line.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 232.5 for this game, it suggests a fast-paced game with increased possessions, which typically leads to higher rebound totals, favoring the over on Wembanyama's rebounds.
→TREND: Wembanyama's recent performance has been consistently strong, posting 14 rebounds against the Spurs in their last encounter, indicating a trend of dominating the boards against this specific matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak, adding momentum and energy to their game, likely leading to a close contest which means Wembanyama will play extended minutes (potentially 35-40 minutes), allowing more opportunities to grab rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 0%

Evidence

→STATS: Despite his impressive season average of 11.0 rebounds per game, Wembanyama's recent form shows a decline with only 10.4 rebounds in his last five games, indicating inconsistency in hitting double-digit rebounds.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are currently ranked 1st in the Central Division and exhibit strong rebounding as a team, which can limit Wembanyama's opportunities to grab boards against their frontcourt.
→NARRATIVE: Given the spread of -1.5 and a total of 232.5, the game is expected to be closely contested. If it becomes a high-scoring, fast-paced game, it could lead to fewer rebounding chances for Wembanyama as teams will primarily focus on offense.
→TREND: In his last five games, Wembanyama has only exceeded 9.5 rebounds once, demonstrating a recent trend of underperformance when it comes to rebounding.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs' current success and playoff positioning might lead to load management or adjusted minutes for Wembanyama as the coaching staff considers long-term goals, potentially reducing his minutes and rebounding opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: data from ESPN API, Feature Factory analysis

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Victor Wembanyama has averaged 10.4 rebounds over his last 5 games, exceeding the 9.5 rebound threshold comfortably and demonstrating his capability in this statistic.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are facing the Detroit Pistons, who provide a solid rebounding opportunity, allowing their opponents to secure an average of 47.2 rebounds per game, which can enhance Wembanyama's chances to exceed his line.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 232.5 for this game, it suggests a fast-paced game with increased possessions, which typically leads to higher rebound totals, favoring the over on Wembanyama's rebounds.
→TREND: Wembanyama's recent performance has been consistently strong, posting 14 rebounds against the Spurs in their last encounter, indicating a trend of dominating the boards against this specific matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an 8-game winning streak, adding momentum and energy to their game, likely leading to a close contest which means Wembanyama will play extended minutes (potentially 35-40 minutes), allowing more opportunities to grab rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+680+71.7% EV

Jalen Duren Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+490+62.7% EV

Stephon Castle Over 8.5 rebounds alternate💤

+900+58.1% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+390+47.7% EV

Julian Champagnie Over 8.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1260+40.6% EV