Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Jalen Duren Over 24.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+545↓221%|+375

player points alternate

Jalen Duren Over 24.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+545↓221%|+375

player points alternate

36.40

Composite Score

-9.6%

Net EV

35.00

Narrative Fit

27.80

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, the expectation for a close game between the Pistons and Spurs does not favor Duren hitting the Over on 24.5 points, especially given his recent scoring trends and the Spurs' strong defensive capability against centers. While the pro agent highlights offensive opportunities, the anti agent presents more compelling evidence of Duren's limitations against a tough defense and his inability to exceed this scoring threshold consistently, underscored by the negative Net EV (-0.10) which indicates that the market likely has the price right. Therefore, this wager lacks sufficient value and aligns poorly with the anticipated game script.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren has averaged 14.2 points over the last 5 games, which shows potential for an increase, especially against a high-scoring opponent like the Spurs with a total set at 232.5.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs' defense has allowed opposing centers to score effectively, presenting Duren with an opportunity to capitalize on offensive mismatches in the paint.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high implied total of the game, we can expect a fast-paced matchup where both teams will trade baskets, increasing Duren's scoring chances significantly.
→TREND: In his last matchup against the Spurs, Duren scored over 30 points, indicating that he performs well against this team, and he may replicate that success.
→SITUATIONAL: The game has a small spread of -1.5 in favor of the Pistons, indicating it is expected to be a close game, meaning Duren will likely see increased minutes and usage down the stretch.

Thesis: moderate

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 95%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren's season average is only 11.8 points per game, and in the last five games, he averaged just 14.2 points, well below the 34.5 point threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive front that will likely contain Duren's scoring opportunities, as they rank among the league's top defenses against centers this season.
→NARRATIVE: In a game with a total of 232.5, the expected scoring might be spread across both teams, reducing individual players' chances to exceed significant scoring benchmarks like 34.5 points.
→TREND: Duren has not scored above 20 points in any game during his last five outings, suggesting he is nowhere near capable of hitting 34.5 points based on current form.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that the Pistons are on a five-game winning streak, it is likely they will rely on more established scorers to handle the offensive load, limiting Duren's shot attempts and overall points.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren has averaged 14.2 points over the last 5 games, which shows potential for an increase, especially against a high-scoring opponent like the Spurs with a total set at 232.5.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs' defense has allowed opposing centers to score effectively, presenting Duren with an opportunity to capitalize on offensive mismatches in the paint.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high implied total of the game, we can expect a fast-paced matchup where both teams will trade baskets, increasing Duren's scoring chances significantly.
→TREND: In his last matchup against the Spurs, Duren scored over 30 points, indicating that he performs well against this team, and he may replicate that success.
→SITUATIONAL: The game has a small spread of -1.5 in favor of the Pistons, indicating it is expected to be a close game, meaning Duren will likely see increased minutes and usage down the stretch.

Thesis: moderate

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

+490+62.7% EV

Tobias Harris Over 24.5 points alternate💤

+1100+37.5% EV

Jalen Duren Over 16.5 rebounds alternate💤

+875+35.9% EV

Jalen Duren Over 2.5 steals alternate💤

+820+34.9% EV

Jalen Duren Over 17.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1440+33.5% EV