Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Jalen Duren Over 17.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1440↓914%|+1617

player rebounds alternate

Jalen Duren Over 17.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1440↓914%|+1617

player rebounds alternate

63.00

Composite Score

+33.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This wager on Jalen Duren going Over 17.5 rebounds makes sense given the expected high-scoring and fast-paced game between the Spurs and Pistons. With the Spurs ranking in the bottom half of the league for rebounds allowed per game, Duren has a significant opportunity to capitalize, particularly in a competitive matchup that may lead to more minutes and rebound chances. The Net EV of 0.33 indicates that the market has underpriced this bet, supporting the logic that Duren could exceed the threshold based on these dynamics.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren is averaging 10.3 rebounds per game this season, which is significantly above the threshold of 9.5 rebounds, showing he has the potential to exceed this number.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs rank in the bottom half of the league for rebounds allowed per game, which creates an opportunity for Duren to capitalize on a higher rebounding volume.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's high total of 232.5, there is likely to be a fast-paced environment which generally leads to more shot attempts and subsequently more rebounds available for Duren.
→TREND: In his last five games, Duren is averaging 9.4 rebounds, and he has already recorded a significant 16 rebounds against the Spurs in a previous matchup, indicating he can reach and exceed the 9.5 mark.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of -1.5 suggests a competitive game, increasing the likelihood that Duren will see extended minutes, which correlates with higher statistics across the board.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data source 1, data source 2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren has averaged 9.4 rebounds over his last five games, falling short of the 9.5 threshold, indicating recent underperformance in this category.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong rebounding unit, particularly in their frontcourt, which may limit Duren's opportunities to secure rebounds against their solid defensive presence.
→NARRATIVE: With the game projected to be close based on the spread (Detroit Pistons -1.5), starters might play longer, but if it's a back-and-forth contest, Duren might not see as many uncontested rebounds due to the competitive nature of the game.
→TREND: Duren has recorded less than 10 rebounds in 3 out of his last 5 games, showcasing a pattern of fluctuating performance that suggests difficulty reaching the over in this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The current game context reflects a high-stakes environment as both teams fight for playoff positioning, which may intensify competition and result in fewer rebounds if both teams focus on scoring efficiency over rebounding battles.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, NBA.com

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren is averaging 10.3 rebounds per game this season, which is significantly above the threshold of 9.5 rebounds, showing he has the potential to exceed this number.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs rank in the bottom half of the league for rebounds allowed per game, which creates an opportunity for Duren to capitalize on a higher rebounding volume.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's high total of 232.5, there is likely to be a fast-paced environment which generally leads to more shot attempts and subsequently more rebounds available for Duren.
→TREND: In his last five games, Duren is averaging 9.4 rebounds, and he has already recorded a significant 16 rebounds against the Spurs in a previous matchup, indicating he can reach and exceed the 9.5 mark.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of -1.5 suggests a competitive game, increasing the likelihood that Duren will see extended minutes, which correlates with higher statistics across the board.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data source 1, data source 2

+680+71.7% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 17.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1340+69.1% EV

Jalen Duren Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+490+62.7% EV

Stephon Castle Over 8.5 rebounds alternate💤

+900+58.1% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+390+47.7% EV